What Is ACGL Fair Value?
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Arch Capital Group (ACGL) has a composite fair value estimate of $240.24 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $98.54, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 143.8%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued3 of 4 models$240.24
vs. current price of $98.54(+143.8%)
How Is ACGL Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ACGL is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ACGL Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$368.00
+273.5%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
ACGL Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$117.84
+19.6%Undervalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$92.86
-5.8%Fair Value
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $98.54 is 273.5% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.38B | $5.08B |
| Year 2 | $5.49B | $4.89B |
| Year 3 | $5.60B | $4.71B |
| Year 4 | $5.71B | $4.53B |
| Year 5 | $5.83B | $4.36B |
| Year 6 | $5.94B | $4.20B |
| Year 7 | $6.06B | $4.04B |
| Year 8 | $6.18B | $3.89B |
| Year 9 | $6.31B | $3.75B |
| Year 10 | $6.43B | $3.61B |
| Terminal Value | $191.21B | $107.30B |
What Are ACGL's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$98.54
EPS (TTM)
$12.61
Forward P/E
10.0
Profit Margin
24.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
5.3B
EBITDA
5.9B
Book Value
$66.45
Total Debt
2.7B
What Do Analysts Say About ACGL?
Low
$93.00
Average
$109.92
High
$125.00
Upside
+11.5%
ACGL Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ACGL?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ACGL's estimated fair value is $240.24. The stock is currently trading at $98.54, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is ACGL's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ACGL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ACGL is undervalued. The current price of $98.54 is 143.8% below our estimated fair value of $240.24.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ACGL?
19 analysts cover Arch Capital Group with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $109.92, ranging from $93.00 to $125.00. This implies 11.5% upside from the current price.