What Is ACGL Fair Value?
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Arch Capital Group (ACGL) has a composite fair value estimate of $225.25 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $96.85, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 132.6%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued3 of 4 models$225.25
vs. current price of $96.85(+132.6%)
How Is ACGL Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ACGL is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ACGL Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$331.33
+242.1%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
ACGL Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$122.50
+26.5%Undervalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$97.62
+0.8%Fair Value
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $96.85 is 242.1% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.39B | $4.15B |
| Year 2 | $4.48B | $4.01B |
| Year 3 | $4.57B | $3.87B |
| Year 4 | $4.66B | $3.73B |
| Year 5 | $4.75B | $3.60B |
| Year 6 | $4.84B | $3.48B |
| Year 7 | $4.94B | $3.36B |
| Year 8 | $5.04B | $3.24B |
| Year 9 | $5.14B | $3.13B |
| Year 10 | $5.24B | $3.02B |
| Terminal Value | $168.87B | $97.16B |
What Are ACGL's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$96.85
EPS (TTM)
$12.78
Forward P/E
9.9
Profit Margin
24.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
4.3B
EBITDA
5.6B
Book Value
$68.32
Total Debt
4.3B
What Do Analysts Say About ACGL?
Low
$95.00
Average
$110.13
High
$131.00
Upside
+13.7%
ACGL Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ACGL?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ACGL's estimated fair value is $225.25. The stock is currently trading at $96.85, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is ACGL's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ACGL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ACGL is undervalued. The current price of $96.85 is 132.6% below our estimated fair value of $225.25.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ACGL?
19 analysts cover Arch Capital Group with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $110.13, ranging from $95.00 to $131.00. This implies 13.7% upside from the current price.