What Is TSLA Fair Value?
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 1, 2026, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has a composite fair value estimate of $30.48 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $311.21, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 90.2%.
Data as of August 1, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$30.48
vs. current price of $311.21(-90.2%)
How Is TSLA Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what TSLA is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
TSLA Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$27.60
-91.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
TSLA Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$29.70
-90.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$28.47
-90.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $311.21 is 91.1% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.61B | $4.90B |
| Year 2 | $6.50B | $4.97B |
| Year 3 | $7.53B | $5.05B |
| Year 4 | $8.73B | $5.12B |
| Year 5 | $10.12B | $5.19B |
| Year 6 | $11.72B | $5.26B |
| Year 7 | $13.59B | $5.34B |
| Year 8 | $15.75B | $5.42B |
| Year 9 | $18.26B | $5.49B |
| Year 10 | $21.16B | $5.57B |
| Terminal Value | $184.18B | $48.49B |
What Are TSLA's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$311.21
EPS (TTM)
$1.09
Forward P/E
140.2
Profit Margin
3.7%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
4.8B
EBITDA
10.8B
Book Value
$21.90
Total Debt
16.1B
What Do Analysts Say About TSLA?
Low
$125.00
Average
$398.30
High
$600.00
Upside
+28.0%
TSLA Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of TSLA?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), TSLA's estimated fair value is $30.48. The stock is currently trading at $311.21, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is TSLA's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is TSLA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, TSLA is overvalued. The current price of $311.21 is 90.2% above our estimated fair value of $30.48.
What do Wall Street analysts say about TSLA?
40 analysts cover Tesla Inc. with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $398.30, ranging from $125.00 to $600.00. This implies 28.0% upside from the current price.