What Is MSFT Fair Value?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of September 15, 2026, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a composite fair value estimate of $319.17 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $497.12, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 35.8%.
Data as of September 15, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$319.17
vs. current price of $497.12(-35.8%)
How Is MSFT Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what MSFT is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
MSFT Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$418.68
-15.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$151.55
-69.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
MSFT Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$162.73
-67.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$333.45
-32.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $497.12 is 15.8% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $117.24B | $106.22B |
| Year 2 | $137.02B | $112.48B |
| Year 3 | $160.15B | $119.11B |
| Year 4 | $187.17B | $126.13B |
| Year 5 | $218.76B | $133.57B |
| Year 6 | $255.67B | $141.44B |
| Year 7 | $298.82B | $149.78B |
| Year 8 | $349.24B | $158.61B |
| Year 9 | $408.18B | $167.95B |
| Year 10 | $477.05B | $177.85B |
| Terminal Value | $6.21T | $2.32T |
What Are MSFT's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$497.12
EPS (TTM)
$17.94
Forward P/E
21.1
Profit Margin
40.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
16.5B
EBITDA
194.2B
Book Value
$59.57
Total Debt
128.8B
What Do Analysts Say About MSFT?
Low
$400.00
Average
$572.92
High
$870.00
Upside
+15.2%
MSFT Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of MSFT?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), MSFT's estimated fair value is $319.17. The stock is currently trading at $497.12, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is MSFT's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is MSFT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, MSFT is overvalued. The current price of $497.12 is 35.8% above our estimated fair value of $319.17.
What do Wall Street analysts say about MSFT?
52 analysts cover Microsoft Corporation with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy." The average price target is $572.92, ranging from $400.00 to $870.00. This implies 15.2% upside from the current price.