What Is MSFT Fair Value?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 31, 2026, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a composite fair value estimate of $372.85 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $521.91, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 28.6%.
Data as of October 31, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$372.85
vs. current price of $521.91(-28.6%)
How Is MSFT Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what MSFT is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
MSFT Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$504.52
-3.3%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$211.68
-59.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
MSFT Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$168.93
-67.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$364.48
-30.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $521.91 is 3.3% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $118.57B | $107.88B |
| Year 2 | $140.16B | $116.02B |
| Year 3 | $165.68B | $124.77B |
| Year 4 | $195.84B | $134.19B |
| Year 5 | $231.49B | $144.31B |
| Year 6 | $273.63B | $155.20B |
| Year 7 | $323.45B | $166.91B |
| Year 8 | $382.33B | $179.51B |
| Year 9 | $451.93B | $193.05B |
| Year 10 | $534.21B | $207.61B |
| Terminal Value | $7.39T | $2.87T |
What Are MSFT's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$521.91
EPS (TTM)
$19.16
Forward P/E
21.6
Profit Margin
41.2%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
13.8B
EBITDA
205.8B
Book Value
$63.35
Total Debt
57.2B
What Do Analysts Say About MSFT?
Low
$440.00
Average
$627.73
High
$870.00
Upside
+20.3%
MSFT Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of MSFT?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), MSFT's estimated fair value is $372.85. The stock is currently trading at $521.91, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is MSFT's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is MSFT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, MSFT is overvalued. The current price of $521.91 is 28.6% above our estimated fair value of $372.85.
What do Wall Street analysts say about MSFT?
51 analysts cover Microsoft Corporation with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy." The average price target is $627.73, ranging from $440.00 to $870.00. This implies 20.3% upside from the current price.