What Is MSFT Fair Value?
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 1, 2026, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a composite fair value estimate of $291.38 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $464.72, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 37.3%.
Data as of August 1, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$291.38
vs. current price of $464.72(-37.3%)
How Is MSFT Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what MSFT is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
MSFT Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$375.51
-19.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$134.97
-71.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
MSFT Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$161.64
-65.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$304.42
-34.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $464.72 is 19.2% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $115.98B | $104.98B |
| Year 2 | $134.08B | $109.87B |
| Year 3 | $155.02B | $114.99B |
| Year 4 | $179.23B | $120.34B |
| Year 5 | $207.22B | $125.94B |
| Year 6 | $239.57B | $131.81B |
| Year 7 | $276.98B | $137.94B |
| Year 8 | $320.23B | $144.36B |
| Year 9 | $370.24B | $151.09B |
| Year 10 | $428.05B | $158.12B |
| Terminal Value | $5.50T | $2.03T |
What Are MSFT's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$464.72
EPS (TTM)
$17.94
Forward P/E
20.1
Profit Margin
40.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
16.4B
EBITDA
194.2B
Book Value
$59.57
Total Debt
128.8B
What Do Analysts Say About MSFT?
Low
$400.00
Average
$561.58
High
$870.00
Upside
+20.8%
MSFT Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of MSFT?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), MSFT's estimated fair value is $291.38. The stock is currently trading at $464.72, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is MSFT's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is MSFT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, MSFT is overvalued. The current price of $464.72 is 37.3% above our estimated fair value of $291.38.
What do Wall Street analysts say about MSFT?
53 analysts cover Microsoft Corporation with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy." The average price target is $561.58, ranging from $400.00 to $870.00. This implies 20.8% upside from the current price.