What Is ADM Fair Value?
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) has a composite fair value estimate of $226.22 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $82.30, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 174.9%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued4 of 4 models$226.22
vs. current price of $82.30(+174.9%)
How Is ADM Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ADM is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ADM Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$352.37
+328.2%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$222.25
+170.0%Undervalued
Inputs used
ADM Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$70.54
-14.3%Fair Value
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$120.63
+46.6%Undervalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $82.30 is 328.2% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.97B | $1.84B |
| Year 2 | $2.47B | $2.15B |
| Year 3 | $3.08B | $2.51B |
| Year 4 | $3.85B | $2.94B |
| Year 5 | $4.82B | $3.43B |
| Year 6 | $6.02B | $4.01B |
| Year 7 | $7.53B | $4.68B |
| Year 8 | $9.41B | $5.47B |
| Year 9 | $11.76B | $6.38B |
| Year 10 | $14.70B | $7.46B |
| Terminal Value | $333.10B | $168.96B |
What Are ADM's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$82.30
EPS (TTM)
$2.24
Forward P/E
15.3
Profit Margin
1.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.6B
EBITDA
2.5B
Book Value
$47.31
Total Debt
10.7B
What Do Analysts Say About ADM?
Low
$58.00
Average
$74.60
High
$95.00
Upside
-9.4%
ADM Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ADM?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ADM's estimated fair value is $226.22. The stock is currently trading at $82.30, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is ADM's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ADM overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ADM is undervalued. The current price of $82.30 is 174.9% below our estimated fair value of $226.22.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ADM?
10 analysts cover Archer Daniels Midland with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $74.60, ranging from $58.00 to $95.00. This implies 9.4% downside from the current price.