What Is ADM Fair Value?
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) has a composite fair value estimate of $58.56 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $83.64, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 30.0%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$58.56
vs. current price of $83.64(-30.0%)
How Is ADM Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ADM is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ADM Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$40.15
-52.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
ADM Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$77.86
-6.9%Fair Value
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$55.09
-34.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $83.64 is 52.0% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.22B | $1.14B |
| Year 2 | $1.28B | $1.12B |
| Year 3 | $1.35B | $1.09B |
| Year 4 | $1.42B | $1.07B |
| Year 5 | $1.49B | $1.05B |
| Year 6 | $1.56B | $1.03B |
| Year 7 | $1.64B | $1.01B |
| Year 8 | $1.72B | $986.2M |
| Year 9 | $1.81B | $965.9M |
| Year 10 | $1.90B | $946.1M |
| Terminal Value | $41.33B | $20.61B |
What Are ADM's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$83.64
EPS (TTM)
$3.65
Forward P/E
14.7
Profit Margin
2.2%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.2B
EBITDA
3B
Book Value
$48.91
Total Debt
9.3B
What Do Analysts Say About ADM?
Low
$60.00
Average
$80.20
High
$95.00
Upside
-4.1%
ADM Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ADM?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ADM's estimated fair value is $58.56. The stock is currently trading at $83.64, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ADM's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ADM overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ADM is overvalued. The current price of $83.64 is 30.0% above our estimated fair value of $58.56.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ADM?
10 analysts cover Archer Daniels Midland with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $80.20, ranging from $60.00 to $95.00. This implies 4.1% downside from the current price.