What Is AOS Fair Value?
A. O. Smith (AOS) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, A. O. Smith (AOS) has a composite fair value estimate of $42.18 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $60.31, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 30.1%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$42.18
vs. current price of $60.31(-30.1%)
How Is AOS Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what AOS is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
AOS Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$52.89
-12.3%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$16.80
-72.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
AOS Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$33.93
-43.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$37.56
-37.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $60.31 is 12.3% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $516.4M | $468.4M |
| Year 2 | $538.0M | $442.7M |
| Year 3 | $560.5M | $418.5M |
| Year 4 | $583.9M | $395.5M |
| Year 5 | $608.4M | $373.8M |
| Year 6 | $633.8M | $353.3M |
| Year 7 | $660.4M | $333.9M |
| Year 8 | $688.0M | $315.6M |
| Year 9 | $716.8M | $298.3M |
| Year 10 | $746.8M | $282.0M |
| Terminal Value | $9.90B | $3.74B |
What Are AOS's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$60.31
EPS (TTM)
$3.72
Forward P/E
14.5
Profit Margin
13.8%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
495.6M
EBITDA
795.3M
Book Value
$13.63
Total Debt
656.9M
What Do Analysts Say About AOS?
Low
$59.00
Average
$70.45
High
$84.00
Upside
+16.8%
AOS Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of AOS?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), AOS's estimated fair value is $42.18. The stock is currently trading at $60.31, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is AOS's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is AOS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, AOS is overvalued. The current price of $60.31 is 30.1% above our estimated fair value of $42.18.
What do Wall Street analysts say about AOS?
11 analysts cover A. O. Smith with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $70.45, ranging from $59.00 to $84.00. This implies 16.8% upside from the current price.