What Is AOS Fair Value?
A. O. Smith (AOS) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, A. O. Smith (AOS) has a composite fair value estimate of $40.41 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $57.89, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 30.2%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$40.41
vs. current price of $57.89(-30.2%)
How Is AOS Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what AOS is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
AOS Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$48.77
-15.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$17.07
-70.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
AOS Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$33.74
-41.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$37.34
-35.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $57.89 is 15.8% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $498.3M | $453.1M |
| Year 2 | $512.3M | $423.7M |
| Year 3 | $526.8M | $396.1M |
| Year 4 | $541.6M | $370.4M |
| Year 5 | $556.9M | $346.3M |
| Year 6 | $572.6M | $323.8M |
| Year 7 | $588.8M | $302.8M |
| Year 8 | $605.4M | $283.1M |
| Year 9 | $622.4M | $264.7M |
| Year 10 | $640.0M | $247.5M |
| Terminal Value | $8.79B | $3.40B |
What Are AOS's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$57.89
EPS (TTM)
$3.58
Forward P/E
14.3
Profit Margin
13.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
484.6M
EBITDA
783.7M
Book Value
$13.55
Total Debt
677.2M
What Do Analysts Say About AOS?
Low
$55.00
Average
$69.09
High
$84.00
Upside
+19.3%
AOS Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of AOS?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), AOS's estimated fair value is $40.41. The stock is currently trading at $57.89, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is AOS's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is AOS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, AOS is overvalued. The current price of $57.89 is 30.2% above our estimated fair value of $40.41.
What do Wall Street analysts say about AOS?
11 analysts cover A. O. Smith with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $69.09, ranging from $55.00 to $84.00. This implies 19.3% upside from the current price.