What Is AVB Fair Value?
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, AvalonBay Communities (AVB) has a composite fair value estimate of $63.93 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $190.29, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 66.4%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$63.93
vs. current price of $190.29(-66.4%)
How Is AVB Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what AVB is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
AVB Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$33.10
-82.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$106.96
-43.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
AVB Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$91.77
-51.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$45.25
-76.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $190.29 is 82.6% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.42B | $1.31B |
| Year 2 | $1.45B | $1.24B |
| Year 3 | $1.48B | $1.17B |
| Year 4 | $1.51B | $1.10B |
| Year 5 | $1.54B | $1.04B |
| Year 6 | $1.57B | $975.9M |
| Year 7 | $1.60B | $919.8M |
| Year 8 | $1.63B | $866.9M |
| Year 9 | $1.66B | $817.1M |
| Year 10 | $1.70B | $770.2M |
| Terminal Value | $30.41B | $13.80B |
What Are AVB's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$190.29
EPS (TTM)
$8.01
Forward P/E
39.1
Profit Margin
37.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.4B
EBITDA
1.8B
Book Value
$82.72
Total Debt
9.5B
What Do Analysts Say About AVB?
Low
$172.00
Average
$198.44
High
$221.00
Upside
+4.3%
AVB Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of AVB?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), AVB's estimated fair value is $63.93. The stock is currently trading at $190.29, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is AVB's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is AVB overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, AVB is overvalued. The current price of $190.29 is 66.4% above our estimated fair value of $63.93.
What do Wall Street analysts say about AVB?
18 analysts cover AvalonBay Communities with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $198.44, ranging from $172.00 to $221.00. This implies 4.3% upside from the current price.