What Is CASY Fair Value?
Casey's (CASY) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Casey's (CASY) has a composite fair value estimate of $310.89 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $808.49, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 61.5%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$310.89
vs. current price of $808.49(-61.5%)
How Is CASY Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what CASY is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
CASY Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$441.31
-45.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$99.83
-87.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
CASY Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$226.43
-72.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$230.37
-71.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $808.49 is 45.4% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $610.6M | $567.7M |
| Year 2 | $676.7M | $585.0M |
| Year 3 | $749.9M | $602.7M |
| Year 4 | $831.1M | $621.1M |
| Year 5 | $921.1M | $640.0M |
| Year 6 | $1.02B | $659.4M |
| Year 7 | $1.13B | $679.5M |
| Year 8 | $1.25B | $700.1M |
| Year 9 | $1.39B | $721.4M |
| Year 10 | $1.54B | $743.4M |
| Terminal Value | $31.23B | $15.07B |
What Are CASY's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$808.49
EPS (TTM)
$19.15
Forward P/E
34.4
Profit Margin
4.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
550.9M
EBITDA
1.5B
Book Value
$107.08
Total Debt
2.9B
What Do Analysts Say About CASY?
Low
$795.00
Average
$953.89
High
$1,069.00
Upside
+18.0%
CASY Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of CASY?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), CASY's estimated fair value is $310.89. The stock is currently trading at $808.49, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is CASY's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is CASY overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, CASY is overvalued. The current price of $808.49 is 61.5% above our estimated fair value of $310.89.
What do Wall Street analysts say about CASY?
18 analysts cover Casey's with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $953.89, ranging from $795.00 to $1,069.00. This implies 18.0% upside from the current price.