What Is CASY Fair Value?
Casey's (CASY) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Casey's (CASY) has a composite fair value estimate of $316.32 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $641.74, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 50.7%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$316.32
vs. current price of $641.74(-50.7%)
How Is CASY Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what CASY is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
CASY Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$448.81
-30.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$114.34
-82.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
CASY Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$230.48
-64.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$227.01
-64.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $641.74 is 30.1% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $592.9M | $552.5M |
| Year 2 | $656.0M | $569.7M |
| Year 3 | $725.8M | $587.4M |
| Year 4 | $803.1M | $605.7M |
| Year 5 | $888.6M | $624.5M |
| Year 6 | $983.2M | $643.9M |
| Year 7 | $1.09B | $663.9M |
| Year 8 | $1.20B | $684.6M |
| Year 9 | $1.33B | $705.8M |
| Year 10 | $1.47B | $727.8M |
| Terminal Value | $31.41B | $15.51B |
What Are CASY's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$641.74
EPS (TTM)
$20.76
Forward P/E
27.4
Profit Margin
4.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
503.3M
EBITDA
1.6B
Book Value
$110.71
Total Debt
2.9B
What Do Analysts Say About CASY?
Low
$687.00
Average
$795.79
High
$933.00
Upside
+24.0%
CASY Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of CASY?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), CASY's estimated fair value is $316.32. The stock is currently trading at $641.74, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is CASY's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is CASY overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, CASY is overvalued. The current price of $641.74 is 50.7% above our estimated fair value of $316.32.
What do Wall Street analysts say about CASY?
19 analysts cover Casey's with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $795.79, ranging from $687.00 to $933.00. This implies 24.0% upside from the current price.