What Is CAT Fair Value?
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of September 15, 2026, Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) has a composite fair value estimate of $493.41 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $783.54, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 37.0%.
Data as of September 15, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$493.41
vs. current price of $783.54(-37.0%)
How Is CAT Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what CAT is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
CAT Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$542.57
-30.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$133.69
-82.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
CAT Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$160.65
-79.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$839.11
+7.1%Fair Value
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $783.54 is 30.8% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.33B | $7.42B |
| Year 2 | $10.41B | $8.27B |
| Year 3 | $13.01B | $9.21B |
| Year 4 | $16.27B | $10.25B |
| Year 5 | $20.33B | $11.42B |
| Year 6 | $25.42B | $12.72B |
| Year 7 | $31.77B | $14.17B |
| Year 8 | $39.71B | $15.78B |
| Year 9 | $49.64B | $17.58B |
| Year 10 | $62.05B | $19.58B |
| Terminal Value | $653.75B | $206.23B |
What Are CAT's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$783.54
EPS (TTM)
$23.21
Forward P/E
24.2
Profit Margin
14.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
5B
EBITDA
16.3B
Book Value
$42.19
Total Debt
45.1B
What Do Analysts Say About CAT?
Low
$575.00
Average
$975.61
High
$1,225.00
Upside
+24.5%
CAT Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of CAT?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), CAT's estimated fair value is $493.41. The stock is currently trading at $783.54, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is CAT's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is CAT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, CAT is overvalued. The current price of $783.54 is 37.0% above our estimated fair value of $493.41.
What do Wall Street analysts say about CAT?
26 analysts cover Caterpillar Inc. with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $975.61, ranging from $575.00 to $1,225.00. This implies 24.5% upside from the current price.