What Is CF Fair Value?
CF Industries (CF) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, CF Industries (CF) has a composite fair value estimate of $157.66 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $117.25, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 34.5%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued4 of 4 models$157.66
vs. current price of $117.25(+34.5%)
How Is CF Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what CF is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
CF Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$202.48
+72.7%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$50.22
-57.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
CF Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$114.18
-2.6%Fair Value
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$152.81
+30.3%Undervalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $117.25 is 72.7% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.34B | $1.26B |
| Year 2 | $1.41B | $1.23B |
| Year 3 | $1.48B | $1.21B |
| Year 4 | $1.55B | $1.19B |
| Year 5 | $1.63B | $1.17B |
| Year 6 | $1.71B | $1.15B |
| Year 7 | $1.80B | $1.13B |
| Year 8 | $1.89B | $1.11B |
| Year 9 | $1.98B | $1.09B |
| Year 10 | $2.08B | $1.08B |
| Terminal Value | $49.40B | $25.55B |
What Are CF's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$117.25
EPS (TTM)
$13.48
Forward P/E
10.5
Profit Margin
27.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.3B
EBITDA
3.9B
Book Value
$37.92
Total Debt
3.6B
What Do Analysts Say About CF?
Low
$105.00
Average
$127.69
High
$195.72
Upside
+8.9%
CF Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of CF?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), CF's estimated fair value is $157.66. The stock is currently trading at $117.25, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is CF's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is CF overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, CF is undervalued. The current price of $117.25 is 34.5% below our estimated fair value of $157.66.
What do Wall Street analysts say about CF?
20 analysts cover CF Industries with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $127.69, ranging from $105.00 to $195.72. This implies 8.9% upside from the current price.