What Is CMG Fair Value?
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has a composite fair value estimate of $12.67 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $34.63, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 63.4%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$12.67
vs. current price of $34.63(-63.4%)
How Is CMG Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what CMG is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
CMG Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$15.07
-56.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
CMG Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$6.91
-80.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$11.35
-67.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $34.63 is 56.5% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.25B | $1.14B |
| Year 2 | $1.35B | $1.13B |
| Year 3 | $1.46B | $1.12B |
| Year 4 | $1.58B | $1.11B |
| Year 5 | $1.71B | $1.10B |
| Year 6 | $1.85B | $1.09B |
| Year 7 | $2.00B | $1.08B |
| Year 8 | $2.17B | $1.07B |
| Year 9 | $2.34B | $1.06B |
| Year 10 | $2.54B | $1.05B |
| Terminal Value | $38.88B | $16.15B |
What Are CMG's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$34.63
EPS (TTM)
$1.04
Forward P/E
25.6
Profit Margin
12.0%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.1B
EBITDA
2.3B
Book Value
$1.87
Total Debt
5.2B
What Do Analysts Say About CMG?
Low
$35.00
Average
$43.22
High
$52.00
Upside
+24.8%
CMG Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of CMG?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), CMG's estimated fair value is $12.67. The stock is currently trading at $34.63, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is CMG's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is CMG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, CMG is overvalued. The current price of $34.63 is 63.4% above our estimated fair value of $12.67.
What do Wall Street analysts say about CMG?
32 analysts cover Chipotle Mexican Grill with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $43.22, ranging from $35.00 to $52.00. This implies 24.8% upside from the current price.