What Is COP Fair Value?
ConocoPhillips (COP) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of September 15, 2026, ConocoPhillips (COP) has a composite fair value estimate of $179.72 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $141.22, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 27.3%.
Data as of September 15, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued4 of 4 models$179.72
vs. current price of $141.22(+27.3%)
How Is COP Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what COP is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
COP Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$257.54
+82.4%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$125.83
-10.9%Fair Value
Inputs used
COP Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$113.65
-19.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$105.53
-25.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $141.22 is 82.4% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.08B | $7.69B |
| Year 2 | $8.48B | $7.68B |
| Year 3 | $8.90B | $7.67B |
| Year 4 | $9.35B | $7.67B |
| Year 5 | $9.82B | $7.66B |
| Year 6 | $10.31B | $7.66B |
| Year 7 | $10.82B | $7.65B |
| Year 8 | $11.36B | $7.64B |
| Year 9 | $11.93B | $7.64B |
| Year 10 | $12.53B | $7.63B |
| Terminal Value | $497.42B | $303.01B |
What Are COP's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$141.22
EPS (TTM)
$7.56
Forward P/E
14.7
Profit Margin
14.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
7.7B
EBITDA
26.8B
Book Value
$54.40
Total Debt
23.3B
What Do Analysts Say About COP?
Low
$126.00
Average
$146.08
High
$189.00
Upside
+3.4%
COP Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of COP?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), COP's estimated fair value is $179.72. The stock is currently trading at $141.22, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is COP's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is COP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, COP is undervalued. The current price of $141.22 is 27.3% below our estimated fair value of $179.72.
What do Wall Street analysts say about COP?
25 analysts cover ConocoPhillips with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $146.08, ranging from $126.00 to $189.00. This implies 3.4% upside from the current price.