What Is COP Fair Value?
ConocoPhillips (COP) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 1, 2026, ConocoPhillips (COP) has a composite fair value estimate of $152.70 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $120.48, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 26.7%.
Data as of August 1, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued4 of 4 models$152.70
vs. current price of $120.48(+26.7%)
How Is COP Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what COP is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
COP Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$201.03
+66.9%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$128.94
+7.0%Fair Value
Inputs used
COP Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$106.74
-11.4%Fair Value
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$95.59
-20.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $120.48 is 66.9% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.29B | $5.99B |
| Year 2 | $6.61B | $5.99B |
| Year 3 | $6.94B | $5.99B |
| Year 4 | $7.28B | $5.99B |
| Year 5 | $7.65B | $5.99B |
| Year 6 | $8.03B | $5.99B |
| Year 7 | $8.43B | $5.99B |
| Year 8 | $8.85B | $5.99B |
| Year 9 | $9.29B | $5.99B |
| Year 10 | $9.76B | $5.99B |
| Terminal Value | $399.54B | $245.20B |
What Are COP's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$120.48
EPS (TTM)
$5.90
Forward P/E
13.4
Profit Margin
12.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
5.3B
EBITDA
23.3B
Book Value
$52.98
Total Debt
23.3B
What Do Analysts Say About COP?
Low
$115.00
Average
$141.00
High
$183.00
Upside
+17.0%
COP Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of COP?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), COP's estimated fair value is $152.70. The stock is currently trading at $120.48, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is COP's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is COP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, COP is undervalued. The current price of $120.48 is 26.7% below our estimated fair value of $152.70.
What do Wall Street analysts say about COP?
25 analysts cover ConocoPhillips with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $141.00, ranging from $115.00 to $183.00. This implies 17.0% upside from the current price.