What Is COST Fair Value?
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 31, 2026, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) has a composite fair value estimate of $289.81 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $1,012.28, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 71.4%.
Data as of October 31, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$289.81
vs. current price of $1,012.28(-71.4%)
How Is COST Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what COST is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
COST Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$385.27
-61.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$147.58
-85.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
COST Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$203.59
-79.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$232.53
-77.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $1012.28 is 61.9% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.62B | $6.98B |
| Year 2 | $8.40B | $7.05B |
| Year 3 | $9.26B | $7.12B |
| Year 4 | $10.20B | $7.18B |
| Year 5 | $11.24B | $7.25B |
| Year 6 | $12.39B | $7.32B |
| Year 7 | $13.65B | $7.39B |
| Year 8 | $15.04B | $7.46B |
| Year 9 | $16.58B | $7.53B |
| Year 10 | $18.27B | $7.60B |
| Terminal Value | $280.87B | $116.85B |
What Are COST's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$1,012.28
EPS (TTM)
$20.76
Forward P/E
40.4
Profit Margin
3.0%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
6.8B
EBITDA
14.2B
Book Value
$80.77
Total Debt
10.2B
What Do Analysts Say About COST?
Low
$770.00
Average
$1,067.59
High
$1,315.00
Upside
+5.5%
COST Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of COST?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), COST's estimated fair value is $289.81. The stock is currently trading at $1,012.28, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is COST's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is COST overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, COST is overvalued. The current price of $1,012.28 is 71.4% above our estimated fair value of $289.81.
What do Wall Street analysts say about COST?
37 analysts cover Costco Wholesale Corporation with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $1,067.59, ranging from $770.00 to $1,315.00. This implies 5.5% upside from the current price.