What Is CVNA Fair Value?
Carvana (CVNA) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Carvana (CVNA) has a composite fair value estimate of $13.37 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $70.59, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 81.1%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$13.37
vs. current price of $70.59(-81.1%)
How Is CVNA Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what CVNA is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
CVNA Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$10.40
-85.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
CVNA Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$13.17
-81.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$15.15
-78.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $70.59 is 85.3% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.57B | $1.29B |
| Year 2 | $1.73B | $1.17B |
| Year 3 | $1.90B | $1.06B |
| Year 4 | $2.10B | $960.1M |
| Year 5 | $2.31B | $870.4M |
| Year 6 | $2.55B | $789.1M |
| Year 7 | $2.81B | $715.4M |
| Year 8 | $3.10B | $648.6M |
| Year 9 | $3.41B | $588.0M |
| Year 10 | $3.76B | $533.1M |
| Terminal Value | $20.21B | $2.86B |
What Are CVNA's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$70.59
EPS (TTM)
$1.73
Forward P/E
36.0
Profit Margin
6.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
196.8M
EBITDA
2.3B
Book Value
$5.20
Total Debt
5.6B
What Do Analysts Say About CVNA?
Low
$67.00
Average
$91.90
High
$120.00
Upside
+30.2%
CVNA Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of CVNA?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), CVNA's estimated fair value is $13.37. The stock is currently trading at $70.59, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is CVNA's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is CVNA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, CVNA is overvalued. The current price of $70.59 is 81.1% above our estimated fair value of $13.37.
What do Wall Street analysts say about CVNA?
21 analysts cover Carvana with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $91.90, ranging from $67.00 to $120.00. This implies 30.2% upside from the current price.