What Is CVNA Fair Value?
Carvana (CVNA) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Carvana (CVNA) has a composite fair value estimate of $20.17 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $60.39, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 66.6%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$20.17
vs. current price of $60.39(-66.6%)
How Is CVNA Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what CVNA is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
CVNA Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$16.78
-72.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
CVNA Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$14.06
-76.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$26.88
-55.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $60.39 is 72.2% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.66B | $1.37B |
| Year 2 | $1.95B | $1.32B |
| Year 3 | $2.28B | $1.27B |
| Year 4 | $2.68B | $1.22B |
| Year 5 | $3.13B | $1.17B |
| Year 6 | $3.67B | $1.13B |
| Year 7 | $4.30B | $1.09B |
| Year 8 | $5.04B | $1.05B |
| Year 9 | $5.90B | $1.01B |
| Year 10 | $6.91B | $970.9M |
| Terminal Value | $36.93B | $5.19B |
What Are CVNA's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$60.39
EPS (TTM)
$1.89
Forward P/E
26.9
Profit Margin
6.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
424.4M
EBITDA
2.5B
Book Value
$5.60
Total Debt
5.7B
What Do Analysts Say About CVNA?
Low
$60.00
Average
$82.29
High
$120.00
Upside
+36.3%
CVNA Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of CVNA?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), CVNA's estimated fair value is $20.17. The stock is currently trading at $60.39, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is CVNA's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is CVNA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, CVNA is overvalued. The current price of $60.39 is 66.6% above our estimated fair value of $20.17.
What do Wall Street analysts say about CVNA?
21 analysts cover Carvana with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $82.29, ranging from $60.00 to $120.00. This implies 36.3% upside from the current price.