What Is DLTR Fair Value?
Dollar Tree (DLTR) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Dollar Tree (DLTR) has a composite fair value estimate of $230.88 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $127.03, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 81.8%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued3 of 4 models$230.88
vs. current price of $127.03(+81.8%)
How Is DLTR Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what DLTR is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
DLTR Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$377.95
+197.5%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
DLTR Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$53.32
-58.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$109.17
-14.1%Fair Value
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $127.03 is 197.5% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.67B | $1.56B |
| Year 2 | $1.93B | $1.68B |
| Year 3 | $2.23B | $1.82B |
| Year 4 | $2.58B | $1.96B |
| Year 5 | $2.99B | $2.12B |
| Year 6 | $3.46B | $2.29B |
| Year 7 | $4.00B | $2.47B |
| Year 8 | $4.63B | $2.67B |
| Year 9 | $5.35B | $2.89B |
| Year 10 | $6.19B | $3.12B |
| Terminal Value | $137.90B | $69.45B |
What Are DLTR's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$127.03
EPS (TTM)
$6.35
Forward P/E
16.5
Profit Margin
6.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.4B
EBITDA
2.4B
Book Value
$18.13
Total Debt
7.6B
What Do Analysts Say About DLTR?
Low
$85.00
Average
$127.20
High
$170.00
Upside
+0.1%
DLTR Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of DLTR?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), DLTR's estimated fair value is $230.88. The stock is currently trading at $127.03, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is DLTR's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is DLTR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, DLTR is undervalued. The current price of $127.03 is 81.8% below our estimated fair value of $230.88.
What do Wall Street analysts say about DLTR?
25 analysts cover Dollar Tree with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $127.20, ranging from $85.00 to $170.00. This implies 0.1% upside from the current price.