What Is DLTR Fair Value?
Dollar Tree (DLTR) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Dollar Tree (DLTR) has a composite fair value estimate of $226.02 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $116.28, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 94.4%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued3 of 4 models$226.02
vs. current price of $116.28(+94.4%)
How Is DLTR Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what DLTR is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
DLTR Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$341.31
+193.5%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
DLTR Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$57.06
-50.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$149.24
+28.3%Undervalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $116.28 is 193.5% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.25B | $1.16B |
| Year 2 | $1.48B | $1.29B |
| Year 3 | $1.76B | $1.43B |
| Year 4 | $2.09B | $1.58B |
| Year 5 | $2.49B | $1.75B |
| Year 6 | $2.95B | $1.94B |
| Year 7 | $3.51B | $2.15B |
| Year 8 | $4.17B | $2.38B |
| Year 9 | $4.96B | $2.64B |
| Year 10 | $5.89B | $2.92B |
| Terminal Value | $126.55B | $62.73B |
What Are DLTR's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$116.28
EPS (TTM)
$8.21
Forward P/E
14.7
Profit Margin
8.0%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1B
EBITDA
2.5B
Book Value
$18.25
Total Debt
7.7B
What Do Analysts Say About DLTR?
Low
$98.00
Average
$135.38
High
$170.00
Upside
+16.4%
DLTR Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of DLTR?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), DLTR's estimated fair value is $226.02. The stock is currently trading at $116.28, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is DLTR's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is DLTR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, DLTR is undervalued. The current price of $116.28 is 94.4% below our estimated fair value of $226.02.
What do Wall Street analysts say about DLTR?
26 analysts cover Dollar Tree with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $135.38, ranging from $98.00 to $170.00. This implies 16.4% upside from the current price.