What Is ERIE Fair Value?
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Erie Indemnity (ERIE) has a composite fair value estimate of $177.18 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $210.19, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 15.7%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$177.18
vs. current price of $210.19(-15.7%)
How Is ERIE Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ERIE is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ERIE Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$231.49
+10.1%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$146.50
-30.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
ERIE Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$113.14
-46.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$126.40
-39.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $210.19 is 10.1% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $456.4M | $430.3M |
| Year 2 | $465.6M | $413.9M |
| Year 3 | $474.9M | $398.0M |
| Year 4 | $484.4M | $382.8M |
| Year 5 | $494.0M | $368.1M |
| Year 6 | $503.9M | $354.0M |
| Year 7 | $514.0M | $340.4M |
| Year 8 | $524.3M | $327.4M |
| Year 9 | $534.8M | $314.9M |
| Year 10 | $545.5M | $302.8M |
| Terminal Value | $15.70B | $8.71B |
What Are ERIE's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$210.19
EPS (TTM)
$9.62
Forward P/E
N/A
Profit Margin
14.0%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
447.5M
EBITDA
827M
Book Value
$45.01
Total Debt
49.6M
ERIE Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ERIE?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ERIE's estimated fair value is $177.18. The stock is currently trading at $210.19, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ERIE's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ERIE overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ERIE is overvalued. The current price of $210.19 is 15.7% above our estimated fair value of $177.18.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ERIE?
Analyst coverage data is not currently available for ERIE.