What Is ESS Fair Value?
Essex Property Trust (ESS) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Essex Property Trust (ESS) has a composite fair value estimate of $150.12 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $292.79, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 48.7%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$150.12
vs. current price of $292.79(-48.7%)
How Is ESS Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ESS is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ESS Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$204.60
-30.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$164.28
-43.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
ESS Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$105.93
-63.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$59.00
-79.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $292.79 is 30.1% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.01B | $944.9M |
| Year 2 | $1.04B | $908.2M |
| Year 3 | $1.08B | $873.0M |
| Year 4 | $1.11B | $839.1M |
| Year 5 | $1.14B | $806.6M |
| Year 6 | $1.18B | $775.3M |
| Year 7 | $1.22B | $745.2M |
| Year 8 | $1.25B | $716.3M |
| Year 9 | $1.29B | $688.5M |
| Year 10 | $1.33B | $661.8M |
| Terminal Value | $28.81B | $14.33B |
What Are ESS's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$292.79
EPS (TTM)
$8.73
Forward P/E
47.8
Profit Margin
29.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
983M
EBITDA
1.3B
Book Value
$84.52
Total Debt
6.9B
What Do Analysts Say About ESS?
Low
$239.00
Average
$292.69
High
$336.00
Upside
-0.0%
ESS Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ESS?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ESS's estimated fair value is $150.12. The stock is currently trading at $292.79, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ESS's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ESS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ESS is overvalued. The current price of $292.79 is 48.7% above our estimated fair value of $150.12.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ESS?
24 analysts cover Essex Property Trust with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $292.69, ranging from $239.00 to $336.00. This implies 0.0% downside from the current price.