What Is ESS Fair Value?
Essex Property Trust (ESS) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Essex Property Trust (ESS) has a composite fair value estimate of $174.94 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $269.37, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 35.1%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$174.94
vs. current price of $269.37(-35.1%)
How Is ESS Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ESS is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ESS Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$266.23
-1.2%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
ESS Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$101.28
-62.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$55.04
-79.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $269.37 is 1.2% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.09B | $1.02B |
| Year 2 | $1.14B | $991.8M |
| Year 3 | $1.19B | $966.7M |
| Year 4 | $1.24B | $942.3M |
| Year 5 | $1.30B | $918.4M |
| Year 6 | $1.36B | $895.2M |
| Year 7 | $1.42B | $872.6M |
| Year 8 | $1.48B | $850.5M |
| Year 9 | $1.55B | $829.0M |
| Year 10 | $1.62B | $808.0M |
| Terminal Value | $35.42B | $17.72B |
What Are ESS's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$269.37
EPS (TTM)
$6.43
Forward P/E
43.2
Profit Margin
20.9%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1B
EBITDA
1.2B
Book Value
$82.83
Total Debt
6.7B
What Do Analysts Say About ESS?
Low
$239.00
Average
$300.23
High
$330.00
Upside
+11.5%
ESS Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ESS?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ESS's estimated fair value is $174.94. The stock is currently trading at $269.37, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ESS's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ESS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ESS is overvalued. The current price of $269.37 is 35.1% above our estimated fair value of $174.94.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ESS?
25 analysts cover Essex Property Trust with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $300.23, ranging from $239.00 to $330.00. This implies 11.5% upside from the current price.