What Is ESS Fair Value?
Essex Property Trust (ESS) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 29, 2026, Essex Property Trust (ESS) has a composite fair value estimate of $169.08 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $284.03, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 40.5%.
Data as of August 29, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$169.08
vs. current price of $284.03(-40.5%)
How Is ESS Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ESS is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ESS Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$253.97
-10.6%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$166.37
-41.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
ESS Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$102.18
-64.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$56.03
-80.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $284.03 is 10.6% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.09B | $1.01B |
| Year 2 | $1.13B | $984.1M |
| Year 3 | $1.18B | $955.6M |
| Year 4 | $1.23B | $927.8M |
| Year 5 | $1.27B | $900.8M |
| Year 6 | $1.33B | $874.7M |
| Year 7 | $1.38B | $849.2M |
| Year 8 | $1.44B | $824.6M |
| Year 9 | $1.50B | $800.6M |
| Year 10 | $1.56B | $777.4M |
| Terminal Value | $34.00B | $16.97B |
What Are ESS's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$284.03
EPS (TTM)
$6.50
Forward P/E
45.7
Profit Margin
20.9%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1B
EBITDA
1.2B
Book Value
$82.83
Total Debt
6.7B
What Do Analysts Say About ESS?
Low
$239.00
Average
$304.99
High
$352.00
Upside
+7.4%
ESS Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ESS?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ESS's estimated fair value is $169.08. The stock is currently trading at $284.03, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ESS's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ESS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ESS is overvalued. The current price of $284.03 is 40.5% above our estimated fair value of $169.08.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ESS?
25 analysts cover Essex Property Trust with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $304.99, ranging from $239.00 to $352.00. This implies 7.4% upside from the current price.