What Is EXPD Fair Value?
Expeditors International (EXPD) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Expeditors International (EXPD) has a composite fair value estimate of $144.76 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $195.13, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 25.8%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$144.76
vs. current price of $195.13(-25.8%)
How Is EXPD Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what EXPD is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
EXPD Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$208.69
+6.9%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$74.39
-61.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
EXPD Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$53.70
-72.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$136.99
-29.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $195.13 is 6.9% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $936.5M | $849.7M |
| Year 2 | $1.10B | $905.2M |
| Year 3 | $1.29B | $964.4M |
| Year 4 | $1.52B | $1.03B |
| Year 5 | $1.78B | $1.09B |
| Year 6 | $2.09B | $1.17B |
| Year 7 | $2.45B | $1.24B |
| Year 8 | $2.88B | $1.32B |
| Year 9 | $3.38B | $1.41B |
| Year 10 | $3.97B | $1.50B |
| Terminal Value | $52.79B | $19.97B |
What Are EXPD's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$195.13
EPS (TTM)
$6.86
Forward P/E
24.2
Profit Margin
7.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
797.6M
EBITDA
1.3B
Book Value
$16.30
Total Debt
567.3M
What Do Analysts Say About EXPD?
Low
$100.00
Average
$180.87
High
$220.00
Upside
-7.3%
EXPD Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of EXPD?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), EXPD's estimated fair value is $144.76. The stock is currently trading at $195.13, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is EXPD's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is EXPD overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, EXPD is overvalued. The current price of $195.13 is 25.8% above our estimated fair value of $144.76.
What do Wall Street analysts say about EXPD?
15 analysts cover Expeditors International with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $180.87, ranging from $100.00 to $220.00. This implies 7.3% downside from the current price.