What Is EXPD Fair Value?
Expeditors International (EXPD) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Expeditors International (EXPD) has a composite fair value estimate of $81.05 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $177.70, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 54.4%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$81.05
vs. current price of $177.70(-54.4%)
How Is EXPD Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what EXPD is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
EXPD Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$113.19
-36.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$28.79
-83.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
EXPD Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$51.74
-70.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$68.77
-61.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $177.70 is 36.3% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $851.2M | $773.4M |
| Year 2 | $925.0M | $763.7M |
| Year 3 | $1.01B | $754.0M |
| Year 4 | $1.09B | $744.5M |
| Year 5 | $1.19B | $735.2M |
| Year 6 | $1.29B | $725.9M |
| Year 7 | $1.40B | $716.8M |
| Year 8 | $1.52B | $707.8M |
| Year 9 | $1.66B | $698.9M |
| Year 10 | $1.80B | $690.1M |
| Terminal Value | $24.40B | $9.36B |
What Are EXPD's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$177.70
EPS (TTM)
$6.17
Forward P/E
25.4
Profit Margin
7.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
783.2M
EBITDA
1.1B
Book Value
$17.30
Total Debt
565M
What Do Analysts Say About EXPD?
Low
$95.00
Average
$155.21
High
$200.00
Upside
-12.7%
EXPD Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of EXPD?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), EXPD's estimated fair value is $81.05. The stock is currently trading at $177.70, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is EXPD's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is EXPD overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, EXPD is overvalued. The current price of $177.70 is 54.4% above our estimated fair value of $81.05.
What do Wall Street analysts say about EXPD?
14 analysts cover Expeditors International with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $155.21, ranging from $95.00 to $200.00. This implies 12.7% downside from the current price.