What Is FAST Fair Value?
Fastenal (FAST) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Fastenal (FAST) has a composite fair value estimate of $21.78 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $52.00, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 58.1%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$21.78
vs. current price of $52.00(-58.1%)
How Is FAST Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what FAST is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
FAST Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$28.64
-44.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
FAST Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$9.91
-80.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$16.99
-67.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $52.00 is 44.9% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.07B | $988.4M |
| Year 2 | $1.21B | $1.04B |
| Year 3 | $1.38B | $1.08B |
| Year 4 | $1.56B | $1.14B |
| Year 5 | $1.77B | $1.19B |
| Year 6 | $2.00B | $1.24B |
| Year 7 | $2.27B | $1.30B |
| Year 8 | $2.58B | $1.37B |
| Year 9 | $2.92B | $1.43B |
| Year 10 | $3.31B | $1.50B |
| Terminal Value | $58.90B | $26.63B |
What Are FAST's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$52.00
EPS (TTM)
$1.17
Forward P/E
37.2
Profit Margin
15.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
916.1M
EBITDA
2B
Book Value
$3.44
Total Debt
441.5M
What Do Analysts Say About FAST?
Low
$39.90
Average
$49.84
High
$60.00
Upside
-4.2%
FAST Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of FAST?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), FAST's estimated fair value is $21.78. The stock is currently trading at $52.00, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is FAST's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is FAST overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, FAST is overvalued. The current price of $52.00 is 58.1% above our estimated fair value of $21.78.
What do Wall Street analysts say about FAST?
13 analysts cover Fastenal with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $49.84, ranging from $39.90 to $60.00. This implies 4.2% downside from the current price.