What Is HCA Fair Value?
HCA Healthcare (HCA) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, HCA Healthcare (HCA) has a composite fair value estimate of $336.81 based on four valuation models: DCF (47% weight), Graham Number (0% weight), PEG (33% weight), and DDM (20% weight). The current market price is $378.85, suggesting the stock is fair value by 11.1%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value3 of 4 models$336.81
vs. current price of $378.85(-11.1%)
How Is HCA Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what HCA is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
HCA Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
47% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$413.62
+9.2%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
20% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$47.98
-87.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
HCA Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. HCA Healthcare currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
33% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$300.39
-20.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $378.85 is 9.2% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.18B | $5.71B |
| Year 2 | $6.67B | $5.69B |
| Year 3 | $7.19B | $5.68B |
| Year 4 | $7.76B | $5.66B |
| Year 5 | $8.37B | $5.65B |
| Year 6 | $9.03B | $5.63B |
| Year 7 | $9.74B | $5.62B |
| Year 8 | $10.51B | $5.60B |
| Year 9 | $11.34B | $5.58B |
| Year 10 | $12.24B | $5.57B |
| Terminal Value | $220.45B | $100.34B |
What Are HCA's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$378.85
EPS (TTM)
$30.23
Forward P/E
11.5
Profit Margin
8.9%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
5.7B
EBITDA
15.6B
Book Value
-$28.32
Total Debt
49.8B
What Do Analysts Say About HCA?
Low
$370.00
Average
$470.55
High
$635.00
Upside
+24.2%
HCA Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of HCA?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), HCA's estimated fair value is $336.81. The stock is currently trading at $378.85, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is HCA's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is HCA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, HCA is fair value. The current price of $378.85 is 11.1% above our estimated fair value of $336.81.
What do Wall Street analysts say about HCA?
20 analysts cover HCA Healthcare with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $470.55, ranging from $370.00 to $635.00. This implies 24.2% upside from the current price.