What Is HCA Fair Value?
HCA Healthcare (HCA) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 29, 2026, HCA Healthcare (HCA) has a composite fair value estimate of $266.80 based on four valuation models: DCF (47% weight), Graham Number (0% weight), PEG (33% weight), and DDM (20% weight). The current market price is $417.82, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 36.1%.
Data as of August 29, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$266.80
vs. current price of $417.82(-36.1%)
How Is HCA Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what HCA is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
HCA Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
47% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$290.69
-30.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
20% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$44.51
-89.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
HCA Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. HCA Healthcare currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
33% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$294.91
-29.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $417.82 is 30.4% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.43B | $5.02B |
| Year 2 | $5.79B | $4.95B |
| Year 3 | $6.18B | $4.88B |
| Year 4 | $6.60B | $4.81B |
| Year 5 | $7.04B | $4.74B |
| Year 6 | $7.51B | $4.68B |
| Year 7 | $8.02B | $4.61B |
| Year 8 | $8.55B | $4.55B |
| Year 9 | $9.13B | $4.48B |
| Year 10 | $9.74B | $4.42B |
| Terminal Value | $174.46B | $79.16B |
What Are HCA's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$417.82
EPS (TTM)
$29.71
Forward P/E
13.0
Profit Margin
8.8%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
3.7B
EBITDA
15.7B
Book Value
-$30.47
Total Debt
51.6B
What Do Analysts Say About HCA?
Low
$380.00
Average
$451.48
High
$579.00
Upside
+8.1%
HCA Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of HCA?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), HCA's estimated fair value is $266.80. The stock is currently trading at $417.82, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is HCA's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is HCA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, HCA is overvalued. The current price of $417.82 is 36.1% above our estimated fair value of $266.80.
What do Wall Street analysts say about HCA?
21 analysts cover HCA Healthcare with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $451.48, ranging from $380.00 to $579.00. This implies 8.1% upside from the current price.