What Is HLT Fair Value?
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Hilton Worldwide (HLT) has a composite fair value estimate of $134.74 based on four valuation models: DCF (47% weight), Graham Number (0% weight), PEG (33% weight), and DDM (20% weight). The current market price is $328.48, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 59.0%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$134.74
vs. current price of $328.48(-59.0%)
How Is HLT Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what HLT is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
HLT Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
47% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$165.88
-49.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
20% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$17.80
-94.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
HLT Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. Hilton Worldwide currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
33% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$120.33
-63.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $328.48 is 49.5% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.91B | $1.75B |
| Year 2 | $2.17B | $1.81B |
| Year 3 | $2.46B | $1.88B |
| Year 4 | $2.78B | $1.95B |
| Year 5 | $3.16B | $2.02B |
| Year 6 | $3.58B | $2.09B |
| Year 7 | $4.06B | $2.17B |
| Year 8 | $4.60B | $2.25B |
| Year 9 | $5.22B | $2.33B |
| Year 10 | $5.91B | $2.42B |
| Terminal Value | $88.56B | $36.25B |
What Are HLT's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$328.48
EPS (TTM)
$6.60
Forward P/E
31.5
Profit Margin
30.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.7B
EBITDA
3B
Book Value
-$25.86
Total Debt
13.1B
What Do Analysts Say About HLT?
Low
$260.00
Average
$349.17
High
$397.00
Upside
+6.3%
HLT Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of HLT?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), HLT's estimated fair value is $134.74. The stock is currently trading at $328.48, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is HLT's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is HLT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, HLT is overvalued. The current price of $328.48 is 59.0% above our estimated fair value of $134.74.
What do Wall Street analysts say about HLT?
24 analysts cover Hilton Worldwide with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $349.17, ranging from $260.00 to $397.00. This implies 6.3% upside from the current price.