What Is ITW Fair Value?
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Illinois Tool Works (ITW) has a composite fair value estimate of $109.23 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $271.41, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 59.8%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$109.23
vs. current price of $271.41(-59.8%)
How Is ITW Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ITW is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ITW Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$124.42
-54.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$108.33
-60.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
ITW Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$53.53
-80.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$113.48
-58.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $271.41 is 54.2% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.48B | $2.26B |
| Year 2 | $2.67B | $2.23B |
| Year 3 | $2.88B | $2.20B |
| Year 4 | $3.10B | $2.16B |
| Year 5 | $3.34B | $2.13B |
| Year 6 | $3.60B | $2.10B |
| Year 7 | $3.88B | $2.07B |
| Year 8 | $4.18B | $2.04B |
| Year 9 | $4.51B | $2.01B |
| Year 10 | $4.86B | $1.98B |
| Terminal Value | $71.99B | $29.26B |
What Are ITW's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$271.41
EPS (TTM)
$10.75
Forward P/E
22.3
Profit Margin
19.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
2.2B
EBITDA
4.7B
Book Value
$11.22
Total Debt
9.1B
What Do Analysts Say About ITW?
Low
$219.00
Average
$280.05
High
$317.00
Upside
+3.2%
ITW Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ITW?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ITW's estimated fair value is $109.23. The stock is currently trading at $271.41, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ITW's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ITW overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ITW is overvalued. The current price of $271.41 is 59.8% above our estimated fair value of $109.23.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ITW?
14 analysts cover Illinois Tool Works with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $280.05, ranging from $219.00 to $317.00. This implies 3.2% upside from the current price.