What Is JCI Fair Value?
Johnson Controls (JCI) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Johnson Controls (JCI) has a composite fair value estimate of $135.42 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $142.76, suggesting the stock is fair value by 5.1%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value4 of 4 models$135.42
vs. current price of $142.76(-5.1%)
How Is JCI Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what JCI is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
JCI Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$210.94
+47.8%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$46.02
-67.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
JCI Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$49.39
-65.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$117.26
-17.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $142.76 is 47.8% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.56B | $3.21B |
| Year 2 | $4.41B | $3.58B |
| Year 3 | $5.47B | $4.00B |
| Year 4 | $6.78B | $4.47B |
| Year 5 | $8.40B | $4.99B |
| Year 6 | $10.42B | $5.57B |
| Year 7 | $12.91B | $6.23B |
| Year 8 | $16.01B | $6.95B |
| Year 9 | $19.84B | $7.77B |
| Year 10 | $24.60B | $8.68B |
| Terminal Value | $297.16B | $104.79B |
What Are JCI's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$142.76
EPS (TTM)
$3.21
Forward P/E
24.8
Profit Margin
14.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
2.9B
EBITDA
4.3B
Book Value
$22.16
Total Debt
9.5B
What Do Analysts Say About JCI?
Low
$111.00
Average
$155.74
High
$186.00
Upside
+9.1%
JCI Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of JCI?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), JCI's estimated fair value is $135.42. The stock is currently trading at $142.76, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is JCI's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is JCI overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, JCI is fair value. The current price of $142.76 is 5.1% above our estimated fair value of $135.42.
What do Wall Street analysts say about JCI?
19 analysts cover Johnson Controls with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $155.74, ranging from $111.00 to $186.00. This implies 9.1% upside from the current price.