What Is MCD Fair Value?
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 1, 2026, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) has a composite fair value estimate of $239.10 based on four valuation models: DCF (47% weight), Graham Number (0% weight), PEG (33% weight), and DDM (20% weight). The current market price is $270.64, suggesting the stock is fair value by 11.7%.
Data as of August 1, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value3 of 4 models$239.10
vs. current price of $270.64(-11.7%)
How Is MCD Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what MCD is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
MCD Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
47% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$263.60
-2.6%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
20% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$256.63
-5.2%Fair Value
Inputs used
MCD Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. McDonald's Corporation currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
33% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$129.15
-52.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $270.64 is 2.6% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.91B | $6.51B |
| Year 2 | $7.43B | $6.59B |
| Year 3 | $8.00B | $6.68B |
| Year 4 | $8.60B | $6.77B |
| Year 5 | $9.25B | $6.86B |
| Year 6 | $9.96B | $6.95B |
| Year 7 | $10.71B | $7.05B |
| Year 8 | $11.52B | $7.14B |
| Year 9 | $12.40B | $7.23B |
| Year 10 | $13.34B | $7.33B |
| Terminal Value | $372.82B | $204.94B |
What Are MCD's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$270.64
EPS (TTM)
$12.12
Forward P/E
19.2
Profit Margin
31.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
6B
EBITDA
14.9B
Book Value
-$1.81
Total Debt
54.9B
What Do Analysts Say About MCD?
Low
$250.00
Average
$323.90
High
$407.00
Upside
+19.7%
MCD Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of MCD?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), MCD's estimated fair value is $239.10. The stock is currently trading at $270.64, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is MCD's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is MCD overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, MCD is fair value. The current price of $270.64 is 11.7% above our estimated fair value of $239.10.
What do Wall Street analysts say about MCD?
31 analysts cover McDonald's Corporation with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $323.90, ranging from $250.00 to $407.00. This implies 19.7% upside from the current price.