What Is MCD Fair Value?
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 31, 2026, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) has a composite fair value estimate of $204.21 based on four valuation models: DCF (47% weight), Graham Number (0% weight), PEG (33% weight), and DDM (20% weight). The current market price is $258.12, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 20.9%.
Data as of October 31, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$204.21
vs. current price of $258.12(-20.9%)
How Is MCD Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what MCD is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
MCD Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
47% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$219.28
-15.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
20% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$204.36
-20.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
MCD Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. McDonald's Corporation currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
33% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$128.85
-50.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $258.12 is 15.0% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.82B | $6.41B |
| Year 2 | $7.23B | $6.41B |
| Year 3 | $7.68B | $6.40B |
| Year 4 | $8.15B | $6.39B |
| Year 5 | $8.65B | $6.38B |
| Year 6 | $9.18B | $6.37B |
| Year 7 | $9.74B | $6.36B |
| Year 8 | $10.34B | $6.36B |
| Year 9 | $10.97B | $6.35B |
| Year 10 | $11.64B | $6.34B |
| Terminal Value | $316.88B | $172.56B |
What Are MCD's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$258.12
EPS (TTM)
$12.31
Forward P/E
18.8
Profit Margin
31.7%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
6.3B
EBITDA
14.9B
Book Value
-$1.45
Total Debt
54.6B
What Do Analysts Say About MCD?
Low
$230.00
Average
$291.69
High
$390.00
Upside
+13.0%
MCD Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of MCD?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), MCD's estimated fair value is $204.21. The stock is currently trading at $258.12, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is MCD's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is MCD overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, MCD is overvalued. The current price of $258.12 is 20.9% above our estimated fair value of $204.21.
What do Wall Street analysts say about MCD?
29 analysts cover McDonald's Corporation with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $291.69, ranging from $230.00 to $390.00. This implies 13.0% upside from the current price.