What Is MCD Fair Value?
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of September 15, 2026, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) has a composite fair value estimate of $230.28 based on four valuation models: DCF (47% weight), Graham Number (0% weight), PEG (33% weight), and DDM (20% weight). The current market price is $252.78, suggesting the stock is fair value by 8.9%.
Data as of September 15, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value3 of 4 models$230.28
vs. current price of $252.78(-8.9%)
How Is MCD Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what MCD is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
MCD Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
47% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$254.82
+0.8%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
20% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$236.47
-6.5%Fair Value
Inputs used
MCD Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. McDonald's Corporation currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
33% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$129.26
-48.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $252.78 is 0.8% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.87B | $6.48B |
| Year 2 | $7.36B | $6.53B |
| Year 3 | $7.88B | $6.59B |
| Year 4 | $8.43B | $6.65B |
| Year 5 | $9.02B | $6.71B |
| Year 6 | $9.66B | $6.77B |
| Year 7 | $10.34B | $6.82B |
| Year 8 | $11.07B | $6.88B |
| Year 9 | $11.85B | $6.94B |
| Year 10 | $12.68B | $7.00B |
| Terminal Value | $359.47B | $198.54B |
What Are MCD's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$252.78
EPS (TTM)
$12.31
Forward P/E
18.1
Profit Margin
31.7%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
6.3B
EBITDA
14.9B
Book Value
-$1.45
Total Debt
54.6B
What Do Analysts Say About MCD?
Low
$250.00
Average
$312.84
High
$407.00
Upside
+23.8%
MCD Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of MCD?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), MCD's estimated fair value is $230.28. The stock is currently trading at $252.78, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is MCD's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is MCD overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, MCD is fair value. The current price of $252.78 is 8.9% above our estimated fair value of $230.28.
What do Wall Street analysts say about MCD?
31 analysts cover McDonald's Corporation with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $312.84, ranging from $250.00 to $407.00. This implies 23.8% upside from the current price.