What Is MPC Fair Value?
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 29, 2026, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has a composite fair value estimate of $526.09 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $368.83, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 42.6%.
Data as of August 29, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued4 of 4 models$526.09
vs. current price of $368.83(+42.6%)
How Is MPC Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what MPC is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
MPC Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$773.92
+109.8%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$85.52
-76.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
MPC Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$276.03
-25.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$502.34
+36.2%Undervalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $368.83 is 109.8% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $9.71B | $9.12B |
| Year 2 | $10.20B | $8.99B |
| Year 3 | $10.71B | $8.87B |
| Year 4 | $11.24B | $8.74B |
| Year 5 | $11.80B | $8.62B |
| Year 6 | $12.40B | $8.50B |
| Year 7 | $13.01B | $8.38B |
| Year 8 | $13.67B | $8.27B |
| Year 9 | $14.35B | $8.15B |
| Year 10 | $15.07B | $8.04B |
| Terminal Value | $387.40B | $206.65B |
What Are MPC's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$368.83
EPS (TTM)
$29.25
Forward P/E
11.5
Profit Margin
5.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
9.2B
EBITDA
15.4B
Book Value
$67.41
Total Debt
34.3B
What Do Analysts Say About MPC?
Low
$186.00
Average
$324.56
High
$413.00
Upside
-12.0%
The stock is trading above the average analyst target while still rated "Buy." This often means the price has rallied faster than analysts have updated their targets.
MPC Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of MPC?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), MPC's estimated fair value is $526.09. The stock is currently trading at $368.83, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is MPC's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is MPC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, MPC is undervalued. The current price of $368.83 is 42.6% below our estimated fair value of $526.09.
What do Wall Street analysts say about MPC?
18 analysts cover Marathon Petroleum with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $324.56, ranging from $186.00 to $413.00. This implies 12.0% downside from the current price.