What Is MRNA Fair Value?
Moderna (MRNA) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Traditional Valuation Not Available
Moderna currently has negative earnings and/or negative free cash flow, which means standard valuation models (DCF, Graham Number, PEG) cannot produce a meaningful fair value estimate.
This is common for pre-profit, turnaround, or high-growth companies reinvesting heavily. These stocks are typically valued on revenue multiples, total addressable market (TAM), or path-to-profitability expectations rather than current fundamentals.
How Is MRNA Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what MRNA is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
MRNA Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
0% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
N/A
N/A
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
MRNA Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. Moderna currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
0% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
N/A
Requires positive earnings per share. Moderna is not yet profitable, so the PEG model cannot calculate a fair price.
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
What Are MRNA's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$68.28
EPS (TTM)
-$8.24
Forward P/E
N/A
Profit Margin
-143.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
-20M
EBITDA
-2.3B
Book Value
$18.66
Total Debt
1.3B
What Do Analysts Say About MRNA?
Low
$22.00
Average
$48.26
High
$79.00
Upside
-29.3%
MRNA Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of MRNA?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), MRNA's estimated fair value is $0.00. The stock is currently trading at $68.28, which makes it n/a by our analysis.
How is MRNA's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is MRNA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, MRNA is n/a. The current price of $68.28 is 0.0% above our estimated fair value of $0.00.
What do Wall Street analysts say about MRNA?
19 analysts cover Moderna with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $48.26, ranging from $22.00 to $79.00. This implies 29.3% downside from the current price.