What Is MRNA Fair Value?
Moderna (MRNA) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Moderna (MRNA) has a composite fair value estimate of $34.96 based on four valuation models: DCF (100% weight), Graham Number (0% weight), PEG (0% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $216.25, suggesting the stock is n/a by 83.8%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
N/A1 of 4 models$34.96
vs. current price of $216.25(-83.8%)
How Is MRNA Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what MRNA is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
MRNA Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
100% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$29.72
-86.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
MRNA Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. Moderna currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
0% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
N/A
Requires positive earnings per share. Moderna is not yet profitable, so the PEG model cannot calculate a fair price.
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $216.25 is 86.3% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $346.4M | $313.7M |
| Year 2 | $400.9M | $328.8M |
| Year 3 | $464.0M | $344.6M |
| Year 4 | $537.1M | $361.2M |
| Year 5 | $621.6M | $378.6M |
| Year 6 | $719.5M | $396.8M |
| Year 7 | $832.8M | $416.0M |
| Year 8 | $963.9M | $436.0M |
| Year 9 | $1.12B | $457.0M |
| Year 10 | $1.29B | $479.0M |
| Terminal Value | $16.70B | $6.19B |
What Are MRNA's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$216.25
EPS (TTM)
-$7.98
Forward P/E
N/A
Profit Margin
-141.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
299.2M
EBITDA
-2.2B
Book Value
$16.95
Total Debt
1.3B
What Do Analysts Say About MRNA?
Low
$45.00
Average
$122.67
High
$200.00
Upside
-43.3%
MRNA Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of MRNA?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), MRNA's estimated fair value is $34.96. The stock is currently trading at $216.25, which makes it n/a by our analysis.
How is MRNA's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is MRNA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, MRNA is n/a. The current price of $216.25 is 83.8% above our estimated fair value of $34.96.
What do Wall Street analysts say about MRNA?
18 analysts cover Moderna with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $122.67, ranging from $45.00 to $200.00. This implies 43.3% downside from the current price.