What Is NOC Fair Value?
Northrop Grumman (NOC) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Northrop Grumman (NOC) has a composite fair value estimate of $298.92 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $525.22, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 43.1%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$298.92
vs. current price of $525.22(-43.1%)
How Is NOC Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what NOC is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
NOC Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$334.52
-36.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$149.92
-71.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
NOC Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$275.28
-47.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$279.49
-46.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $525.22 is 36.3% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.36B | $3.08B |
| Year 2 | $3.59B | $3.03B |
| Year 3 | $3.84B | $2.98B |
| Year 4 | $4.11B | $2.93B |
| Year 5 | $4.40B | $2.88B |
| Year 6 | $4.71B | $2.83B |
| Year 7 | $5.04B | $2.79B |
| Year 8 | $5.40B | $2.74B |
| Year 9 | $5.78B | $2.69B |
| Year 10 | $6.18B | $2.65B |
| Terminal Value | $99.84B | $42.77B |
What Are NOC's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$525.22
EPS (TTM)
$31.67
Forward P/E
17.4
Profit Margin
10.8%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
2.1B
EBITDA
7.3B
Book Value
$120.50
Total Debt
17.6B
What Do Analysts Say About NOC?
Low
$533.00
Average
$670.48
High
$815.00
Upside
+27.7%
NOC Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of NOC?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), NOC's estimated fair value is $298.92. The stock is currently trading at $525.22, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is NOC's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is NOC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, NOC is overvalued. The current price of $525.22 is 43.1% above our estimated fair value of $298.92.
What do Wall Street analysts say about NOC?
21 analysts cover Northrop Grumman with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $670.48, ranging from $533.00 to $815.00. This implies 27.7% upside from the current price.