What Is NOC Fair Value?
Northrop Grumman (NOC) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Northrop Grumman (NOC) has a composite fair value estimate of $340.83 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $495.69, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 31.2%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$340.83
vs. current price of $495.69(-31.2%)
How Is NOC Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what NOC is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
NOC Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$353.68
-28.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
NOC Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$286.50
-42.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$289.78
-41.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $495.69 is 28.6% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.37B | $3.10B |
| Year 2 | $3.62B | $3.06B |
| Year 3 | $3.89B | $3.02B |
| Year 4 | $4.17B | $2.98B |
| Year 5 | $4.48B | $2.94B |
| Year 6 | $4.82B | $2.90B |
| Year 7 | $5.17B | $2.86B |
| Year 8 | $5.56B | $2.83B |
| Year 9 | $5.97B | $2.79B |
| Year 10 | $6.41B | $2.75B |
| Terminal Value | $103.96B | $44.64B |
What Are NOC's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$495.69
EPS (TTM)
$31.46
Forward P/E
16.3
Profit Margin
10.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
2.5B
EBITDA
7.3B
Book Value
$125.89
Total Debt
17.1B
What Do Analysts Say About NOC?
Low
$419.00
Average
$619.08
High
$815.00
Upside
+24.9%
NOC Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of NOC?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), NOC's estimated fair value is $340.83. The stock is currently trading at $495.69, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is NOC's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is NOC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, NOC is overvalued. The current price of $495.69 is 31.2% above our estimated fair value of $340.83.
What do Wall Street analysts say about NOC?
24 analysts cover Northrop Grumman with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $619.08, ranging from $419.00 to $815.00. This implies 24.9% upside from the current price.