What Is NRG Fair Value?
NRG Energy (NRG) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, NRG Energy (NRG) has a composite fair value estimate of $96.53 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $137.90, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 30.0%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$96.53
vs. current price of $137.90(-30.0%)
How Is NRG Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what NRG is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
NRG Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$66.42
-51.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$66.08
-52.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
NRG Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$64.30
-53.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$172.76
+25.3%Undervalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $137.90 is 51.8% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $709.3M | $657.3M |
| Year 2 | $841.7M | $722.7M |
| Year 3 | $998.8M | $794.7M |
| Year 4 | $1.19B | $873.8M |
| Year 5 | $1.41B | $960.8M |
| Year 6 | $1.67B | $1.06B |
| Year 7 | $1.98B | $1.16B |
| Year 8 | $2.35B | $1.28B |
| Year 9 | $2.79B | $1.40B |
| Year 10 | $3.31B | $1.54B |
| Terminal Value | $62.60B | $29.21B |
What Are NRG's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$137.90
EPS (TTM)
$0.91
Forward P/E
11.9
Profit Margin
0.7%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
431.6M
EBITDA
2.3B
Book Value
$19.85
Total Debt
23.4B
What Do Analysts Say About NRG?
Low
$99.00
Average
$198.00
High
$267.00
Upside
+43.6%
NRG Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of NRG?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), NRG's estimated fair value is $96.53. The stock is currently trading at $137.90, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is NRG's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is NRG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, NRG is overvalued. The current price of $137.90 is 30.0% above our estimated fair value of $96.53.
What do Wall Street analysts say about NRG?
17 analysts cover NRG Energy with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $198.00, ranging from $99.00 to $267.00. This implies 43.6% upside from the current price.