What Is NSC Fair Value?
Norfolk Southern (NSC) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Norfolk Southern (NSC) has a composite fair value estimate of $117.27 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $321.14, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 63.5%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$117.27
vs. current price of $321.14(-63.5%)
How Is NSC Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what NSC is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
NSC Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$93.23
-71.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$69.96
-78.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
NSC Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$144.79
-54.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$128.76
-59.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $321.14 is 71.0% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.31B | $2.10B |
| Year 2 | $2.47B | $2.04B |
| Year 3 | $2.65B | $1.99B |
| Year 4 | $2.84B | $1.93B |
| Year 5 | $3.04B | $1.88B |
| Year 6 | $3.26B | $1.83B |
| Year 7 | $3.49B | $1.78B |
| Year 8 | $3.74B | $1.73B |
| Year 9 | $4.00B | $1.68B |
| Year 10 | $4.29B | $1.64B |
| Terminal Value | $57.87B | $22.12B |
What Are NSC's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$321.14
EPS (TTM)
$11.72
Forward P/E
22.4
Profit Margin
21.0%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.4B
EBITDA
5.7B
Book Value
$72.36
Total Debt
17.2B
What Do Analysts Say About NSC?
Low
$297.00
Average
$356.11
High
$400.00
Upside
+10.9%
NSC Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of NSC?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), NSC's estimated fair value is $117.27. The stock is currently trading at $321.14, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is NSC's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is NSC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, NSC is overvalued. The current price of $321.14 is 63.5% above our estimated fair value of $117.27.
What do Wall Street analysts say about NSC?
18 analysts cover Norfolk Southern with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $356.11, ranging from $297.00 to $400.00. This implies 10.9% upside from the current price.