What Is NSC Fair Value?
Norfolk Southern (NSC) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Norfolk Southern (NSC) has a composite fair value estimate of $106.85 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $328.54, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 67.5%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$106.85
vs. current price of $328.54(-67.5%)
How Is NSC Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what NSC is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
NSC Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$76.14
-76.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$63.46
-80.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
NSC Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$140.05
-57.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$123.88
-62.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $328.54 is 76.8% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.27B | $2.06B |
| Year 2 | $2.39B | $1.98B |
| Year 3 | $2.52B | $1.90B |
| Year 4 | $2.66B | $1.82B |
| Year 5 | $2.80B | $1.74B |
| Year 6 | $2.96B | $1.67B |
| Year 7 | $3.12B | $1.60B |
| Year 8 | $3.29B | $1.53B |
| Year 9 | $3.46B | $1.47B |
| Year 10 | $3.65B | $1.41B |
| Terminal Value | $49.89B | $19.24B |
What Are NSC's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$328.54
EPS (TTM)
$11.93
Forward P/E
23.8
Profit Margin
21.9%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.3B
EBITDA
5.6B
Book Value
$70.37
Total Debt
17.6B
What Do Analysts Say About NSC?
Low
$297.00
Average
$341.72
High
$396.00
Upside
+4.0%
NSC Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of NSC?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), NSC's estimated fair value is $106.85. The stock is currently trading at $328.54, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is NSC's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is NSC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, NSC is overvalued. The current price of $328.54 is 67.5% above our estimated fair value of $106.85.
What do Wall Street analysts say about NSC?
18 analysts cover Norfolk Southern with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $341.72, ranging from $297.00 to $396.00. This implies 4.0% upside from the current price.