What Is ODFL Fair Value?
Old Dominion (ODFL) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 29, 2026, Old Dominion (ODFL) has a composite fair value estimate of $101.61 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $198.63, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 48.8%.
Data as of August 29, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$101.61
vs. current price of $198.63(-48.8%)
How Is ODFL Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ODFL is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ODFL Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$138.39
-30.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$42.13
-78.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
ODFL Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$53.51
-73.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$99.71
-49.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $198.63 is 30.3% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.14B | $1.03B |
| Year 2 | $1.33B | $1.08B |
| Year 3 | $1.56B | $1.14B |
| Year 4 | $1.83B | $1.21B |
| Year 5 | $2.14B | $1.27B |
| Year 6 | $2.51B | $1.35B |
| Year 7 | $2.94B | $1.42B |
| Year 8 | $3.45B | $1.50B |
| Year 9 | $4.04B | $1.58B |
| Year 10 | $4.74B | $1.67B |
| Terminal Value | $57.32B | $20.24B |
What Are ODFL's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$198.63
EPS (TTM)
$5.16
Forward P/E
29.9
Profit Margin
19.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
970.8M
EBITDA
1.8B
Book Value
$21.92
Total Debt
20M
What Do Analysts Say About ODFL?
Low
$156.00
Average
$232.14
High
$280.00
Upside
+16.9%
ODFL Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ODFL?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ODFL's estimated fair value is $101.61. The stock is currently trading at $198.63, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ODFL's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ODFL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ODFL is overvalued. The current price of $198.63 is 48.8% above our estimated fair value of $101.61.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ODFL?
22 analysts cover Old Dominion with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $232.14, ranging from $156.00 to $280.00. This implies 16.9% upside from the current price.