What Is ODFL Fair Value?
Old Dominion (ODFL) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Old Dominion (ODFL) has a composite fair value estimate of $115.08 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $184.37, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 37.6%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$115.08
vs. current price of $184.37(-37.6%)
How Is ODFL Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ODFL is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ODFL Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$141.70
-23.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
ODFL Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$53.72
-70.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$104.18
-43.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $184.37 is 23.1% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.14B | $1.03B |
| Year 2 | $1.35B | $1.09B |
| Year 3 | $1.59B | $1.16B |
| Year 4 | $1.87B | $1.23B |
| Year 5 | $2.20B | $1.30B |
| Year 6 | $2.59B | $1.38B |
| Year 7 | $3.06B | $1.46B |
| Year 8 | $3.60B | $1.55B |
| Year 9 | $4.24B | $1.64B |
| Year 10 | $5.00B | $1.74B |
| Terminal Value | $59.45B | $20.73B |
What Are ODFL's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$184.37
EPS (TTM)
$5.20
Forward P/E
27.5
Profit Margin
19.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
970.8M
EBITDA
1.8B
Book Value
$21.92
Total Debt
20M
What Do Analysts Say About ODFL?
Low
$156.00
Average
$222.38
High
$250.00
Upside
+20.6%
ODFL Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ODFL?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ODFL's estimated fair value is $115.08. The stock is currently trading at $184.37, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ODFL's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ODFL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ODFL is overvalued. The current price of $184.37 is 37.6% above our estimated fair value of $115.08.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ODFL?
21 analysts cover Old Dominion with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $222.38, ranging from $156.00 to $250.00. This implies 20.6% upside from the current price.