What Is ODFL Fair Value?
Old Dominion (ODFL) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Old Dominion (ODFL) has a composite fair value estimate of $85.63 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $225.23, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 62.0%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$85.63
vs. current price of $225.23(-62.0%)
How Is ODFL Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ODFL is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ODFL Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$109.54
-51.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$39.34
-82.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
ODFL Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$51.42
-77.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$87.08
-61.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $225.23 is 51.4% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $997.0M | $898.2M |
| Year 2 | $1.15B | $935.9M |
| Year 3 | $1.33B | $975.1M |
| Year 4 | $1.54B | $1.02B |
| Year 5 | $1.78B | $1.06B |
| Year 6 | $2.06B | $1.10B |
| Year 7 | $2.39B | $1.15B |
| Year 8 | $2.76B | $1.20B |
| Year 9 | $3.19B | $1.25B |
| Year 10 | $3.69B | $1.30B |
| Terminal Value | $44.52B | $15.67B |
What Are ODFL's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$225.23
EPS (TTM)
$4.71
Forward P/E
34.8
Profit Margin
18.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
862M
EBITDA
1.7B
Book Value
$21.14
Total Debt
40M
What Do Analysts Say About ODFL?
Low
$155.00
Average
$229.86
High
$280.00
Upside
+2.1%
ODFL Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ODFL?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ODFL's estimated fair value is $85.63. The stock is currently trading at $225.23, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ODFL's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ODFL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ODFL is overvalued. The current price of $225.23 is 62.0% above our estimated fair value of $85.63.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ODFL?
22 analysts cover Old Dominion with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $229.86, ranging from $155.00 to $280.00. This implies 2.1% upside from the current price.