What Is ORLY Fair Value?
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) has a composite fair value estimate of $66.61 based on four valuation models: DCF (58% weight), Graham Number (0% weight), PEG (42% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $82.73, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 19.5%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued2 of 4 models$66.61
vs. current price of $82.73(-19.5%)
How Is ORLY Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ORLY is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ORLY Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
58% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$76.53
-7.5%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
ORLY Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. O'Reilly Automotive currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
42% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$33.82
-59.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $82.73 is 7.5% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.10B | $1.96B |
| Year 2 | $2.32B | $2.03B |
| Year 3 | $2.56B | $2.09B |
| Year 4 | $2.83B | $2.16B |
| Year 5 | $3.12B | $2.23B |
| Year 6 | $3.44B | $2.30B |
| Year 7 | $3.80B | $2.38B |
| Year 8 | $4.20B | $2.45B |
| Year 9 | $4.63B | $2.53B |
| Year 10 | $5.11B | $2.61B |
| Terminal Value | $118.02B | $60.33B |
What Are ORLY's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$82.73
EPS (TTM)
$2.96
Forward P/E
22.9
Profit Margin
14.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.3B
EBITDA
4.1B
Book Value
-$1.28
Total Debt
8.7B
What Do Analysts Say About ORLY?
Low
$89.00
Average
$110.25
High
$120.00
Upside
+33.3%
ORLY Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ORLY?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ORLY's estimated fair value is $66.61. The stock is currently trading at $82.73, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ORLY's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ORLY overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ORLY is overvalued. The current price of $82.73 is 19.5% above our estimated fair value of $66.61.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ORLY?
24 analysts cover O'Reilly Automotive with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $110.25, ranging from $89.00 to $120.00. This implies 33.3% upside from the current price.