What Is ORLY Fair Value?
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) has a composite fair value estimate of $68.98 based on four valuation models: DCF (58% weight), Graham Number (0% weight), PEG (42% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $86.03, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 19.8%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued2 of 4 models$68.98
vs. current price of $86.03(-19.8%)
How Is ORLY Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ORLY is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ORLY Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
58% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$78.77
-8.4%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
ORLY Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. O'Reilly Automotive currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
42% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$35.81
-58.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $86.03 is 8.4% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.11B | $1.97B |
| Year 2 | $2.34B | $2.04B |
| Year 3 | $2.60B | $2.12B |
| Year 4 | $2.88B | $2.19B |
| Year 5 | $3.19B | $2.27B |
| Year 6 | $3.54B | $2.35B |
| Year 7 | $3.93B | $2.44B |
| Year 8 | $4.36B | $2.53B |
| Year 9 | $4.83B | $2.62B |
| Year 10 | $5.36B | $2.71B |
| Terminal Value | $120.69B | $61.05B |
What Are ORLY's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$86.03
EPS (TTM)
$3.15
Forward P/E
23.5
Profit Margin
14.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.6B
EBITDA
4.2B
Book Value
-$2.25
Total Debt
9.6B
What Do Analysts Say About ORLY?
Low
$91.00
Average
$107.35
High
$120.00
Upside
+24.8%
ORLY Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ORLY?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ORLY's estimated fair value is $68.98. The stock is currently trading at $86.03, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ORLY's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ORLY overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ORLY is overvalued. The current price of $86.03 is 19.8% above our estimated fair value of $68.98.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ORLY?
26 analysts cover O'Reilly Automotive with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $107.35, ranging from $91.00 to $120.00. This implies 24.8% upside from the current price.