What Is PAYX Fair Value?
Paychex (PAYX) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Paychex (PAYX) has a composite fair value estimate of $80.92 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $106.25, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 23.8%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$80.92
vs. current price of $106.25(-23.8%)
How Is PAYX Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what PAYX is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
PAYX Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$103.82
-2.3%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$92.84
-12.6%Fair Value
Inputs used
PAYX Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$37.36
-64.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$59.61
-43.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $106.25 is 2.3% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.03B | $1.87B |
| Year 2 | $2.19B | $1.86B |
| Year 3 | $2.36B | $1.84B |
| Year 4 | $2.54B | $1.82B |
| Year 5 | $2.73B | $1.81B |
| Year 6 | $2.94B | $1.79B |
| Year 7 | $3.17B | $1.78B |
| Year 8 | $3.41B | $1.76B |
| Year 9 | $3.67B | $1.75B |
| Year 10 | $3.96B | $1.73B |
| Terminal Value | $66.50B | $29.15B |
What Are PAYX's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$106.25
EPS (TTM)
$5.04
Forward P/E
16.6
Profit Margin
27.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.9B
EBITDA
3.1B
Book Value
$10.41
Total Debt
4.6B
What Do Analysts Say About PAYX?
Low
$96.00
Average
$113.93
High
$150.00
Upside
+7.2%
PAYX Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of PAYX?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), PAYX's estimated fair value is $80.92. The stock is currently trading at $106.25, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is PAYX's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is PAYX overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, PAYX is overvalued. The current price of $106.25 is 23.8% above our estimated fair value of $80.92.
What do Wall Street analysts say about PAYX?
14 analysts cover Paychex with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $113.93, ranging from $96.00 to $150.00. This implies 7.2% upside from the current price.