What Is PAYX Fair Value?
Paychex (PAYX) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 29, 2026, Paychex (PAYX) has a composite fair value estimate of $61.09 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $127.04, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 51.9%.
Data as of August 29, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$61.09
vs. current price of $127.04(-51.9%)
How Is PAYX Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what PAYX is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
PAYX Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$60.07
-52.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$80.07
-37.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PAYX Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$37.59
-70.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$59.79
-52.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $127.04 is 52.7% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.42B | $1.30B |
| Year 2 | $1.53B | $1.28B |
| Year 3 | $1.65B | $1.26B |
| Year 4 | $1.77B | $1.24B |
| Year 5 | $1.91B | $1.22B |
| Year 6 | $2.05B | $1.20B |
| Year 7 | $2.21B | $1.18B |
| Year 8 | $2.38B | $1.16B |
| Year 9 | $2.56B | $1.14B |
| Year 10 | $2.76B | $1.12B |
| Terminal Value | $40.78B | $16.55B |
What Are PAYX's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$127.04
EPS (TTM)
$4.92
Forward P/E
19.9
Profit Margin
26.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
0
EBITDA
1.6B
Book Value
$10.50
Total Debt
4.6B
What Do Analysts Say About PAYX?
Low
$95.00
Average
$111.36
High
$150.00
Upside
-12.3%
PAYX Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of PAYX?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), PAYX's estimated fair value is $61.09. The stock is currently trading at $127.04, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is PAYX's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is PAYX overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, PAYX is overvalued. The current price of $127.04 is 51.9% above our estimated fair value of $61.09.
What do Wall Street analysts say about PAYX?
14 analysts cover Paychex with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $111.36, ranging from $95.00 to $150.00. This implies 12.3% downside from the current price.