What Is PGR Fair Value?
Progressive Corporation (PGR) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 1, 2026, Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a composite fair value estimate of $288.64 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $211.42, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 36.5%.
Data as of August 1, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued4 of 4 models$288.64
vs. current price of $211.42(+36.5%)
How Is PGR Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what PGR is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
PGR Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$367.52
+73.8%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$367.97
+74.0%Undervalued
Inputs used
PGR Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$152.78
-27.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$175.67
-16.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $211.42 is 73.8% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.65B | $8.18B |
| Year 2 | $8.82B | $7.89B |
| Year 3 | $9.00B | $7.61B |
| Year 4 | $9.18B | $7.35B |
| Year 5 | $9.36B | $7.09B |
| Year 6 | $9.55B | $6.84B |
| Year 7 | $9.74B | $6.60B |
| Year 8 | $9.94B | $6.36B |
| Year 9 | $10.14B | $6.14B |
| Year 10 | $10.34B | $5.92B |
| Terminal Value | $327.93B | $187.82B |
What Are PGR's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$211.42
EPS (TTM)
$19.94
Forward P/E
13.0
Profit Margin
12.8%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
0
EBITDA
15.4B
Book Value
$59.05
Total Debt
8.4B
What Do Analysts Say About PGR?
Low
$198.00
Average
$230.24
High
$308.00
Upside
+8.9%
PGR Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of PGR?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), PGR's estimated fair value is $288.64. The stock is currently trading at $211.42, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is PGR's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is PGR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, PGR is undervalued. The current price of $211.42 is 36.5% below our estimated fair value of $288.64.
What do Wall Street analysts say about PGR?
21 analysts cover Progressive Corporation with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $230.24, ranging from $198.00 to $308.00. This implies 8.9% upside from the current price.