What Is PGR Fair Value?
Progressive Corporation (PGR) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 31, 2026, Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a composite fair value estimate of $241.28 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $231.28, suggesting the stock is fair value by 4.3%.
Data as of October 31, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value4 of 4 models$241.28
vs. current price of $231.28(+4.3%)
How Is PGR Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what PGR is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
PGR Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$374.54
+61.9%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$10.76
-95.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
PGR Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$157.20
-32.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$184.58
-20.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $231.28 is 61.9% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.65B | $8.19B |
| Year 2 | $8.82B | $7.90B |
| Year 3 | $9.00B | $7.62B |
| Year 4 | $9.18B | $7.36B |
| Year 5 | $9.36B | $7.10B |
| Year 6 | $9.55B | $6.85B |
| Year 7 | $9.74B | $6.62B |
| Year 8 | $9.94B | $6.39B |
| Year 9 | $10.14B | $6.16B |
| Year 10 | $10.34B | $5.95B |
| Terminal Value | $332.82B | $191.48B |
What Are PGR's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$231.28
EPS (TTM)
$19.85
Forward P/E
14.2
Profit Margin
12.7%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
0
EBITDA
15.3B
Book Value
$59.51
Total Debt
8.4B
What Do Analysts Say About PGR?
Low
$196.00
Average
$230.38
High
$262.00
Upside
-0.4%
PGR Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of PGR?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), PGR's estimated fair value is $241.28. The stock is currently trading at $231.28, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is PGR's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is PGR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, PGR is fair value. The current price of $231.28 is 4.3% below our estimated fair value of $241.28.
What do Wall Street analysts say about PGR?
21 analysts cover Progressive Corporation with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $230.38, ranging from $196.00 to $262.00. This implies 0.4% downside from the current price.