What Is PGR Fair Value?
Progressive Corporation (PGR) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of September 15, 2026, Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a composite fair value estimate of $352.11 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $221.31, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 59.1%.
Data as of September 15, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued4 of 4 models$352.11
vs. current price of $221.31(+59.1%)
How Is PGR Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what PGR is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
PGR Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$648.31
+192.9%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$10.40
-95.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
PGR Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$154.62
-30.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$179.80
-18.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $221.31 is 192.9% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $15.42B | $14.57B |
| Year 2 | $15.73B | $14.05B |
| Year 3 | $16.04B | $13.54B |
| Year 4 | $16.36B | $13.06B |
| Year 5 | $16.69B | $12.59B |
| Year 6 | $17.02B | $12.13B |
| Year 7 | $17.36B | $11.70B |
| Year 8 | $17.71B | $11.28B |
| Year 9 | $18.06B | $10.87B |
| Year 10 | $18.42B | $10.48B |
| Terminal Value | $571.65B | $325.18B |
What Are PGR's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$221.31
EPS (TTM)
$19.94
Forward P/E
13.6
Profit Margin
12.8%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
15.1B
EBITDA
15.4B
Book Value
$59.09
Total Debt
8.4B
What Do Analysts Say About PGR?
Low
$198.00
Average
$232.00
High
$309.00
Upside
+4.8%
PGR Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of PGR?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), PGR's estimated fair value is $352.11. The stock is currently trading at $221.31, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is PGR's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is PGR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, PGR is undervalued. The current price of $221.31 is 59.1% below our estimated fair value of $352.11.
What do Wall Street analysts say about PGR?
21 analysts cover Progressive Corporation with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $232.00, ranging from $198.00 to $309.00. This implies 4.8% upside from the current price.