What Is PHM Fair Value?
PulteGroup (PHM) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, PulteGroup (PHM) has a composite fair value estimate of $95.01 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $125.39, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 24.2%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$95.01
vs. current price of $125.39(-24.2%)
How Is PHM Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what PHM is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
PHM Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$90.51
-27.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$11.76
-90.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
PHM Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$123.72
-1.3%Fair Value
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$100.19
-20.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $125.39 is 27.8% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.70B | $1.54B |
| Year 2 | $1.73B | $1.42B |
| Year 3 | $1.77B | $1.31B |
| Year 4 | $1.80B | $1.21B |
| Year 5 | $1.84B | $1.12B |
| Year 6 | $1.87B | $1.04B |
| Year 7 | $1.91B | $958.5M |
| Year 8 | $1.95B | $885.8M |
| Year 9 | $1.99B | $818.7M |
| Year 10 | $2.03B | $756.6M |
| Terminal Value | $26.44B | $9.86B |
What Are PHM's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$125.39
EPS (TTM)
$10.41
Forward P/E
11.3
Profit Margin
12.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.5B
EBITDA
2.9B
Book Value
$67.90
Total Debt
2.5B
What Do Analysts Say About PHM?
Low
$100.00
Average
$139.77
High
$162.00
Upside
+11.5%
PHM Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of PHM?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), PHM's estimated fair value is $95.01. The stock is currently trading at $125.39, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is PHM's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is PHM overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, PHM is overvalued. The current price of $125.39 is 24.2% above our estimated fair value of $95.01.
What do Wall Street analysts say about PHM?
13 analysts cover PulteGroup with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $139.77, ranging from $100.00 to $162.00. This implies 11.5% upside from the current price.