What Is PSX Fair Value?
Phillips 66 (PSX) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Phillips 66 (PSX) has a composite fair value estimate of $164.76 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $196.16, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 16.0%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$164.76
vs. current price of $196.16(-16.0%)
How Is PSX Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what PSX is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
PSX Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$142.41
-27.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$90.63
-53.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
PSX Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$176.20
-10.2%Fair Value
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$193.91
-1.1%Fair Value
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $196.16 is 27.4% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.47B | $3.24B |
| Year 2 | $3.64B | $3.17B |
| Year 3 | $3.82B | $3.11B |
| Year 4 | $4.01B | $3.05B |
| Year 5 | $4.21B | $2.98B |
| Year 6 | $4.43B | $2.93B |
| Year 7 | $4.65B | $2.87B |
| Year 8 | $4.88B | $2.81B |
| Year 9 | $5.12B | $2.75B |
| Year 10 | $5.38B | $2.70B |
| Terminal Value | $118.72B | $59.55B |
What Are PSX's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$196.16
EPS (TTM)
$9.85
Forward P/E
10.9
Profit Margin
3.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
-1.1B
EBITDA
7B
Book Value
$71.15
Total Debt
27.1B
What Do Analysts Say About PSX?
Low
$138.00
Average
$198.44
High
$235.00
Upside
+1.2%
PSX Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of PSX?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), PSX's estimated fair value is $164.76. The stock is currently trading at $196.16, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is PSX's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is PSX overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, PSX is overvalued. The current price of $196.16 is 16.0% above our estimated fair value of $164.76.
What do Wall Street analysts say about PSX?
18 analysts cover Phillips 66 with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $198.44, ranging from $138.00 to $235.00. This implies 1.2% upside from the current price.