What Is RCL Fair Value?
Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) has a composite fair value estimate of $164.02 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $292.17, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 43.9%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$164.02
vs. current price of $292.17(-43.9%)
How Is RCL Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what RCL is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
RCL Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$161.90
-44.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$69.84
-76.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
RCL Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$119.49
-59.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$228.04
-22.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $292.17 is 44.6% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.62B | $3.23B |
| Year 2 | $4.10B | $3.27B |
| Year 3 | $4.64B | $3.30B |
| Year 4 | $5.25B | $3.34B |
| Year 5 | $5.94B | $3.37B |
| Year 6 | $6.72B | $3.41B |
| Year 7 | $7.60B | $3.44B |
| Year 8 | $8.60B | $3.48B |
| Year 9 | $9.73B | $3.52B |
| Year 10 | $11.01B | $3.55B |
| Terminal Value | $119.11B | $38.45B |
What Are RCL's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$292.17
EPS (TTM)
$16.92
Forward P/E
14.6
Profit Margin
24.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
-194.9M
EBITDA
6.9B
Book Value
$36.58
Total Debt
21.8B
What Do Analysts Say About RCL?
Low
$255.00
Average
$338.26
High
$425.00
Upside
+15.8%
RCL Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of RCL?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), RCL's estimated fair value is $164.02. The stock is currently trading at $292.17, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is RCL's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is RCL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, RCL is overvalued. The current price of $292.17 is 43.9% above our estimated fair value of $164.02.
What do Wall Street analysts say about RCL?
27 analysts cover Royal Caribbean Group with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $338.26, ranging from $255.00 to $425.00. This implies 15.8% upside from the current price.