What Is SHOP Fair Value?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 1, 2026, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) has a composite fair value estimate of $32.99 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $117.15, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 71.8%.
Data as of August 1, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$32.99
vs. current price of $117.15(-71.8%)
How Is SHOP Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what SHOP is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
SHOP Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$24.94
-78.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
SHOP Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$19.98
-82.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$51.12
-56.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $117.15 is 78.7% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.57B | $1.32B |
| Year 2 | $1.96B | $1.39B |
| Year 3 | $2.45B | $1.47B |
| Year 4 | $3.07B | $1.55B |
| Year 5 | $3.84B | $1.63B |
| Year 6 | $4.79B | $1.71B |
| Year 7 | $5.99B | $1.81B |
| Year 8 | $7.49B | $1.90B |
| Year 9 | $9.36B | $2.00B |
| Year 10 | $11.70B | $2.11B |
| Terminal Value | $74.06B | $13.34B |
What Are SHOP's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$117.15
EPS (TTM)
$1.02
Forward P/E
50.2
Profit Margin
10.8%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.3B
EBITDA
2.1B
Book Value
$9.61
Total Debt
179M
What Do Analysts Say About SHOP?
Low
$105.00
Average
$148.47
High
$200.00
Upside
+26.7%
SHOP Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of SHOP?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), SHOP's estimated fair value is $32.99. The stock is currently trading at $117.15, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is SHOP's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is SHOP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, SHOP is overvalued. The current price of $117.15 is 71.8% above our estimated fair value of $32.99.
What do Wall Street analysts say about SHOP?
45 analysts cover Shopify Inc. with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $148.47, ranging from $105.00 to $200.00. This implies 26.7% upside from the current price.