What Is SHOP Fair Value?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 31, 2026, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) has a composite fair value estimate of $37.93 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $157.49, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 75.9%.
Data as of October 31, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$37.93
vs. current price of $157.49(-75.9%)
How Is SHOP Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what SHOP is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
SHOP Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$29.66
-81.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
SHOP Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$20.57
-86.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$59.54
-62.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $157.49 is 81.2% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.98B | $1.67B |
| Year 2 | $2.48B | $1.75B |
| Year 3 | $3.10B | $1.84B |
| Year 4 | $3.88B | $1.94B |
| Year 5 | $4.85B | $2.04B |
| Year 6 | $6.06B | $2.14B |
| Year 7 | $7.57B | $2.25B |
| Year 8 | $9.46B | $2.37B |
| Year 9 | $11.83B | $2.49B |
| Year 10 | $14.79B | $2.61B |
| Terminal Value | $92.29B | $16.31B |
What Are SHOP's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$157.49
EPS (TTM)
$1.48
Forward P/E
64.1
Profit Margin
14.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.6B
EBITDA
2.4B
Book Value
$9.84
Total Debt
178M
What Do Analysts Say About SHOP?
Low
$120.00
Average
$176.77
High
$220.00
Upside
+12.2%
SHOP Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of SHOP?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), SHOP's estimated fair value is $37.93. The stock is currently trading at $157.49, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is SHOP's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is SHOP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, SHOP is overvalued. The current price of $157.49 is 75.9% above our estimated fair value of $37.93.
What do Wall Street analysts say about SHOP?
48 analysts cover Shopify Inc. with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $176.77, ranging from $120.00 to $220.00. This implies 12.2% upside from the current price.