What Is SPG Fair Value?
Simon Property Group (SPG) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Simon Property Group (SPG) has a composite fair value estimate of $91.93 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $200.65, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 54.2%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$91.93
vs. current price of $200.65(-54.2%)
How Is SPG Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what SPG is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
SPG Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$120.80
-39.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$113.31
-43.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
SPG Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$42.28
-78.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$58.50
-70.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $200.65 is 39.8% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.72B | $3.40B |
| Year 2 | $4.00B | $3.34B |
| Year 3 | $4.29B | $3.28B |
| Year 4 | $4.61B | $3.22B |
| Year 5 | $4.95B | $3.16B |
| Year 6 | $5.32B | $3.11B |
| Year 7 | $5.71B | $3.05B |
| Year 8 | $6.13B | $2.99B |
| Year 9 | $6.58B | $2.94B |
| Year 10 | $7.07B | $2.88B |
| Terminal Value | $105.37B | $43.02B |
What Are SPG's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$200.65
EPS (TTM)
$14.17
Forward P/E
29.6
Profit Margin
66.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
2.6B
EBITDA
5.1B
Book Value
$13.58
Total Debt
29.4B
What Do Analysts Say About SPG?
Low
$205.00
Average
$229.00
High
$275.00
Upside
+14.1%
SPG Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of SPG?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), SPG's estimated fair value is $91.93. The stock is currently trading at $200.65, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is SPG's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is SPG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, SPG is overvalued. The current price of $200.65 is 54.2% above our estimated fair value of $91.93.
What do Wall Street analysts say about SPG?
19 analysts cover Simon Property Group with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $229.00, ranging from $205.00 to $275.00. This implies 14.1% upside from the current price.