What Is SPG Fair Value?
Simon Property Group (SPG) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Simon Property Group (SPG) has a composite fair value estimate of $88.21 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $222.01, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 60.3%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$88.21
vs. current price of $222.01(-60.3%)
How Is SPG Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what SPG is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
SPG Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$107.46
-51.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$108.41
-51.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
SPG Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$46.40
-79.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$64.40
-71.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $222.01 is 51.6% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.70B | $3.38B |
| Year 2 | $3.96B | $3.30B |
| Year 3 | $4.23B | $3.21B |
| Year 4 | $4.51B | $3.13B |
| Year 5 | $4.82B | $3.06B |
| Year 6 | $5.15B | $2.98B |
| Year 7 | $5.50B | $2.91B |
| Year 8 | $5.87B | $2.83B |
| Year 9 | $6.27B | $2.76B |
| Year 10 | $6.70B | $2.69B |
| Terminal Value | $97.51B | $39.18B |
What Are SPG's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$222.01
EPS (TTM)
$14.43
Forward P/E
32.9
Profit Margin
70.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
2.5B
EBITDA
4.9B
Book Value
$14.86
Total Debt
29B
What Do Analysts Say About SPG?
Low
$194.00
Average
$224.42
High
$282.00
Upside
+1.1%
SPG Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of SPG?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), SPG's estimated fair value is $88.21. The stock is currently trading at $222.01, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is SPG's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is SPG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, SPG is overvalued. The current price of $222.01 is 60.3% above our estimated fair value of $88.21.
What do Wall Street analysts say about SPG?
19 analysts cover Simon Property Group with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $224.42, ranging from $194.00 to $282.00. This implies 1.1% upside from the current price.