What Is SPOT Fair Value?
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of September 16, 2026, Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) has a composite fair value estimate of $236.28 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $547.43, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 56.8%.
Data as of September 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$236.28
vs. current price of $547.43(-56.8%)
How Is SPOT Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what SPOT is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
SPOT Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$259.73
-52.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
SPOT Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$114.75
-79.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$260.79
-52.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $547.43 is 52.6% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.01B | $1.78B |
| Year 2 | $2.44B | $1.90B |
| Year 3 | $2.96B | $2.04B |
| Year 4 | $3.58B | $2.18B |
| Year 5 | $4.34B | $2.34B |
| Year 6 | $5.27B | $2.50B |
| Year 7 | $6.38B | $2.68B |
| Year 8 | $7.74B | $2.87B |
| Year 9 | $9.38B | $3.08B |
| Year 10 | $11.37B | $3.30B |
| Terminal Value | $109.12B | $31.62B |
What Are SPOT's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$547.43
EPS (TTM)
$18.42
Forward P/E
35.5
Profit Margin
18.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.5B
EBITDA
2.7B
Book Value
$47.64
Total Debt
466M
What Do Analysts Say About SPOT?
Low
$418.31
Average
$605.83
High
$717.11
Upside
+10.7%
SPOT Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of SPOT?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), SPOT's estimated fair value is $236.28. The stock is currently trading at $547.43, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is SPOT's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is SPOT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, SPOT is overvalued. The current price of $547.43 is 56.8% above our estimated fair value of $236.28.
What do Wall Street analysts say about SPOT?
38 analysts cover Spotify Technology S.A. with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $605.83, ranging from $418.31 to $717.11. This implies 10.7% upside from the current price.