What Is SPOT Fair Value?
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 1, 2026, Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) has a composite fair value estimate of $255.20 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $499.94, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 49.0%.
Data as of August 1, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$255.20
vs. current price of $499.94(-49.0%)
How Is SPOT Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what SPOT is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
SPOT Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$283.70
-43.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
SPOT Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$112.71
-77.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$287.70
-42.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $499.94 is 43.3% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.03B | $1.80B |
| Year 2 | $2.49B | $1.95B |
| Year 3 | $3.06B | $2.12B |
| Year 4 | $3.75B | $2.29B |
| Year 5 | $4.60B | $2.49B |
| Year 6 | $5.63B | $2.70B |
| Year 7 | $6.91B | $2.92B |
| Year 8 | $8.47B | $3.17B |
| Year 9 | $10.38B | $3.44B |
| Year 10 | $12.73B | $3.73B |
| Terminal Value | $123.54B | $36.20B |
What Are SPOT's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$499.94
EPS (TTM)
$14.80
Forward P/E
31.7
Profit Margin
15.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
707.8M
EBITDA
2.4B
Book Value
$44.35
Total Debt
476M
What Do Analysts Say About SPOT?
Low
$393.78
Average
$606.15
High
$715.52
Upside
+21.2%
SPOT Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of SPOT?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), SPOT's estimated fair value is $255.20. The stock is currently trading at $499.94, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is SPOT's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is SPOT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, SPOT is overvalued. The current price of $499.94 is 49.0% above our estimated fair value of $255.20.
What do Wall Street analysts say about SPOT?
38 analysts cover Spotify Technology S.A. with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $606.15, ranging from $393.78 to $715.52. This implies 21.2% upside from the current price.