What Is SPOT Fair Value?
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 31, 2026, Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) has a composite fair value estimate of $226.56 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $593.44, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 61.8%.
Data as of October 31, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$226.56
vs. current price of $593.44(-61.8%)
How Is SPOT Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what SPOT is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
SPOT Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$249.16
-58.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
SPOT Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$112.96
-81.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$246.95
-58.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $593.44 is 58.0% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.00B | $1.77B |
| Year 2 | $2.42B | $1.88B |
| Year 3 | $2.92B | $2.01B |
| Year 4 | $3.53B | $2.14B |
| Year 5 | $4.27B | $2.28B |
| Year 6 | $5.16B | $2.43B |
| Year 7 | $6.23B | $2.59B |
| Year 8 | $7.53B | $2.76B |
| Year 9 | $9.09B | $2.95B |
| Year 10 | $10.98B | $3.14B |
| Terminal Value | $103.82B | $29.67B |
What Are SPOT's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$593.44
EPS (TTM)
$16.41
Forward P/E
38.9
Profit Margin
15.7%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.4B
EBITDA
2.8B
Book Value
$47.78
Total Debt
452M
What Do Analysts Say About SPOT?
Low
$457.69
Average
$636.18
High
$747.49
Upside
+7.2%
SPOT Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of SPOT?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), SPOT's estimated fair value is $226.56. The stock is currently trading at $593.44, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is SPOT's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is SPOT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, SPOT is overvalued. The current price of $593.44 is 61.8% above our estimated fair value of $226.56.
What do Wall Street analysts say about SPOT?
38 analysts cover Spotify Technology S.A. with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $636.18, ranging from $457.69 to $747.49. This implies 7.2% upside from the current price.