What Is STLD Fair Value?
Steel Dynamics (STLD) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Steel Dynamics (STLD) has a composite fair value estimate of $152.66 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $235.56, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 35.2%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$152.66
vs. current price of $235.56(-35.2%)
How Is STLD Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what STLD is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
STLD Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$113.19
-51.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$41.58
-82.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
STLD Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$153.07
-35.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$246.19
+4.5%Fair Value
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $235.56 is 51.9% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.02B | $913.1M |
| Year 2 | $1.18B | $937.7M |
| Year 3 | $1.35B | $962.9M |
| Year 4 | $1.56B | $988.8M |
| Year 5 | $1.79B | $1.02B |
| Year 6 | $2.06B | $1.04B |
| Year 7 | $2.37B | $1.07B |
| Year 8 | $2.72B | $1.10B |
| Year 9 | $3.13B | $1.13B |
| Year 10 | $3.60B | $1.16B |
| Terminal Value | $38.87B | $12.53B |
What Are STLD's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$235.56
EPS (TTM)
$9.42
Forward P/E
12.5
Profit Margin
7.2%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
-31.8M
EBITDA
2.3B
Book Value
$63.45
Total Debt
4.2B
What Do Analysts Say About STLD?
Low
$221.00
Average
$271.33
High
$310.00
Upside
+15.2%
STLD Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of STLD?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), STLD's estimated fair value is $152.66. The stock is currently trading at $235.56, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is STLD's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is STLD overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, STLD is overvalued. The current price of $235.56 is 35.2% above our estimated fair value of $152.66.
What do Wall Street analysts say about STLD?
12 analysts cover Steel Dynamics with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $271.33, ranging from $221.00 to $310.00. This implies 15.2% upside from the current price.