What Is STX Fair Value?
Seagate Technology (STX) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Seagate Technology (STX) has a composite fair value estimate of $279.41 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $828.30, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 66.3%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$279.41
vs. current price of $828.30(-66.3%)
How Is STX Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what STX is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
STX Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$187.19
-77.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$40.63
-95.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
STX Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$40.43
-95.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$744.50
-10.1%Fair Value
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $828.30 is 77.4% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.01B | $1.74B |
| Year 2 | $2.52B | $1.88B |
| Year 3 | $3.14B | $2.04B |
| Year 4 | $3.93B | $2.20B |
| Year 5 | $4.91B | $2.38B |
| Year 6 | $6.14B | $2.57B |
| Year 7 | $7.68B | $2.78B |
| Year 8 | $9.60B | $3.01B |
| Year 9 | $12.00B | $3.25B |
| Year 10 | $14.99B | $3.52B |
| Terminal Value | $117.24B | $27.49B |
What Are STX's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$828.30
EPS (TTM)
$9.94
Forward P/E
29.1
Profit Margin
21.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.6B
EBITDA
3.5B
Book Value
$4.88
Total Debt
4.2B
What Do Analysts Say About STX?
Low
$680.00
Average
$1,001.00
High
$1,600.00
Upside
+20.8%
STX Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of STX?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), STX's estimated fair value is $279.41. The stock is currently trading at $828.30, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is STX's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is STX overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, STX is overvalued. The current price of $828.30 is 66.3% above our estimated fair value of $279.41.
What do Wall Street analysts say about STX?
23 analysts cover Seagate Technology with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy." The average price target is $1,001.00, ranging from $680.00 to $1,600.00. This implies 20.8% upside from the current price.