What Is TGT Fair Value?
Target Corporation (TGT) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 31, 2026, Target Corporation (TGT) has a composite fair value estimate of $185.24 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $154.38, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 20.0%.
Data as of October 31, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued4 of 4 models$185.24
vs. current price of $154.38(+20.0%)
How Is TGT Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what TGT is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
TGT Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$238.24
+54.3%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$179.25
+16.1%Undervalued
Inputs used
TGT Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$95.13
-38.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$145.87
-5.5%Fair Value
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $154.38 is 54.3% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.92B | $3.61B |
| Year 2 | $4.48B | $3.80B |
| Year 3 | $5.12B | $3.99B |
| Year 4 | $5.85B | $4.20B |
| Year 5 | $6.68B | $4.42B |
| Year 6 | $7.63B | $4.65B |
| Year 7 | $8.72B | $4.89B |
| Year 8 | $9.96B | $5.14B |
| Year 9 | $11.38B | $5.41B |
| Year 10 | $13.00B | $5.69B |
| Terminal Value | $217.86B | $95.31B |
What Are TGT's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$154.38
EPS (TTM)
$9.63
Forward P/E
16.2
Profit Margin
4.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
3.4B
EBITDA
8.6B
Book Value
$39.28
Total Debt
19.2B
What Do Analysts Say About TGT?
Low
$128.00
Average
$163.35
High
$190.00
Upside
+5.8%
TGT Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of TGT?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), TGT's estimated fair value is $185.24. The stock is currently trading at $154.38, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is TGT's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is TGT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, TGT is undervalued. The current price of $154.38 is 20.0% below our estimated fair value of $185.24.
What do Wall Street analysts say about TGT?
34 analysts cover Target Corporation with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $163.35, ranging from $128.00 to $190.00. This implies 5.8% upside from the current price.