What Is TPL Fair Value?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) has a composite fair value estimate of $83.15 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $369.13, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 77.5%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$83.15
vs. current price of $369.13(-77.5%)
How Is TPL Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what TPL is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
TPL Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$86.65
-76.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$42.69
-88.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
TPL Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$71.24
-80.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$93.03
-74.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $369.13 is 76.5% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $368.3M | $341.8M |
| Year 2 | $375.6M | $323.6M |
| Year 3 | $383.1M | $306.4M |
| Year 4 | $390.8M | $290.1M |
| Year 5 | $398.6M | $274.7M |
| Year 6 | $406.6M | $260.1M |
| Year 7 | $414.7M | $246.2M |
| Year 8 | $423.0M | $233.1M |
| Year 9 | $431.5M | $220.7M |
| Year 10 | $440.1M | $209.0M |
| Terminal Value | $8.62B | $4.09B |
What Are TPL's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$369.13
EPS (TTM)
$7.75
Forward P/E
N/A
Profit Margin
60.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
-32.8M
EBITDA
741.6M
Book Value
$24.25
Total Debt
18M
What Do Analysts Say About TPL?
Low
$247.00
Average
$443.00
High
$639.00
Upside
+20.0%
TPL Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of TPL?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), TPL's estimated fair value is $83.15. The stock is currently trading at $369.13, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is TPL's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is TPL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, TPL is overvalued. The current price of $369.13 is 77.5% above our estimated fair value of $83.15.
What do Wall Street analysts say about TPL?
2 analysts cover Texas Pacific Land Corporation with a consensus rating of "." The average price target is $443.00, ranging from $247.00 to $639.00. This implies 20.0% upside from the current price.