What Is TSCO Fair Value?
Tractor Supply (TSCO) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Tractor Supply (TSCO) has a composite fair value estimate of $21.19 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $32.74, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 35.3%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$21.19
vs. current price of $32.74(-35.3%)
How Is TSCO Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what TSCO is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
TSCO Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$23.60
-27.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
TSCO Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$14.55
-55.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$18.65
-43.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $32.74 is 27.9% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $838.5M | $788.1M |
| Year 2 | $855.3M | $755.6M |
| Year 3 | $872.4M | $724.4M |
| Year 4 | $889.8M | $694.5M |
| Year 5 | $907.6M | $665.9M |
| Year 6 | $925.8M | $638.4M |
| Year 7 | $944.3M | $612.0M |
| Year 8 | $963.2M | $586.8M |
| Year 9 | $982.4M | $562.6M |
| Year 10 | $1.00B | $539.4M |
| Terminal Value | $26.40B | $14.21B |
What Are TSCO's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$32.74
EPS (TTM)
$1.92
Forward P/E
16.0
Profit Margin
6.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
103.2M
EBITDA
1.9B
Book Value
$5.04
Total Debt
6.5B
What Do Analysts Say About TSCO?
Low
$28.00
Average
$35.70
High
$42.00
Upside
+9.1%
TSCO Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of TSCO?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), TSCO's estimated fair value is $21.19. The stock is currently trading at $32.74, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is TSCO's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is TSCO overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, TSCO is overvalued. The current price of $32.74 is 35.3% above our estimated fair value of $21.19.
What do Wall Street analysts say about TSCO?
27 analysts cover Tractor Supply with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $35.70, ranging from $28.00 to $42.00. This implies 9.1% upside from the current price.