What Is TSCO Fair Value?
Tractor Supply (TSCO) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Tractor Supply (TSCO) has a composite fair value estimate of $28.02 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $30.17, suggesting the stock is fair value by 7.1%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value4 of 4 models$28.02
vs. current price of $30.17(-7.1%)
How Is TSCO Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what TSCO is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
TSCO Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$37.83
+25.4%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$22.79
-24.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
TSCO Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$15.05
-50.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$21.04
-30.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $30.17 is 25.4% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $866.2M | $816.2M |
| Year 2 | $912.6M | $810.3M |
| Year 3 | $961.6M | $804.5M |
| Year 4 | $1.01B | $798.7M |
| Year 5 | $1.07B | $793.0M |
| Year 6 | $1.12B | $787.3M |
| Year 7 | $1.19B | $781.7M |
| Year 8 | $1.25B | $776.0M |
| Year 9 | $1.32B | $770.5M |
| Year 10 | $1.39B | $765.0M |
| Terminal Value | $39.18B | $21.62B |
What Are TSCO's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$30.17
EPS (TTM)
$2.00
Forward P/E
13.2
Profit Margin
6.9%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
350.7M
EBITDA
2B
Book Value
$4.78
Total Debt
6.4B
What Do Analysts Say About TSCO?
Low
$32.00
Average
$43.59
High
$60.00
Upside
+44.5%
TSCO Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of TSCO?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), TSCO's estimated fair value is $28.02. The stock is currently trading at $30.17, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is TSCO's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is TSCO overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, TSCO is fair value. The current price of $30.17 is 7.1% above our estimated fair value of $28.02.
What do Wall Street analysts say about TSCO?
27 analysts cover Tractor Supply with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $43.59, ranging from $32.00 to $60.00. This implies 44.5% upside from the current price.