What Is ULTA Fair Value?
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Ulta Beauty (ULTA) has a composite fair value estimate of $438.20 based on four valuation models: DCF (41% weight), Graham Number (29% weight), PEG (29% weight), and DDM (0% weight). The current market price is $466.14, suggesting the stock is fair value by 6.0%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value3 of 4 models$438.20
vs. current price of $466.14(-6.0%)
How Is ULTA Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ULTA is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ULTA Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
41% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$580.90
+24.6%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
0% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
N/A
This stock does not pay a dividend, so the DDM cannot be applied. The composite adjusts by redistributing this weight to the other models.
ULTA Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
29% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$202.73
-56.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
29% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$330.37
-29.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $466.14 is 24.6% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.08B | $997.2M |
| Year 2 | $1.21B | $1.02B |
| Year 3 | $1.35B | $1.05B |
| Year 4 | $1.50B | $1.07B |
| Year 5 | $1.68B | $1.10B |
| Year 6 | $1.87B | $1.13B |
| Year 7 | $2.08B | $1.16B |
| Year 8 | $2.32B | $1.18B |
| Year 9 | $2.59B | $1.21B |
| Year 10 | $2.88B | $1.24B |
| Terminal Value | $47.09B | $20.30B |
What Are ULTA's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$466.14
EPS (TTM)
$26.52
Forward P/E
14.6
Profit Margin
9.4%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
973.1M
EBITDA
1.9B
Book Value
$63.48
Total Debt
2.3B
What Do Analysts Say About ULTA?
Low
$450.00
Average
$623.58
High
$735.00
Upside
+33.8%
ULTA Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ULTA?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ULTA's estimated fair value is $438.20. The stock is currently trading at $466.14, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is ULTA's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ULTA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ULTA is fair value. The current price of $466.14 is 6.0% above our estimated fair value of $438.20.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ULTA?
24 analysts cover Ulta Beauty with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $623.58, ranging from $450.00 to $735.00. This implies 33.8% upside from the current price.