What Is UPS Fair Value?
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 31, 2026, United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) has a composite fair value estimate of $95.01 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $108.25, suggesting the stock is fair value by 12.2%.
Data as of October 31, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value4 of 4 models$95.01
vs. current price of $108.25(-12.2%)
How Is UPS Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what UPS is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
UPS Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$119.04
+10.0%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$95.84
-11.5%Fair Value
Inputs used
UPS Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$53.70
-50.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$72.75
-32.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $108.25 is 10.0% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.98B | $5.51B |
| Year 2 | $6.36B | $5.40B |
| Year 3 | $6.76B | $5.29B |
| Year 4 | $7.20B | $5.19B |
| Year 5 | $7.66B | $5.08B |
| Year 6 | $8.14B | $4.98B |
| Year 7 | $8.66B | $4.88B |
| Year 8 | $9.22B | $4.78B |
| Year 9 | $9.80B | $4.69B |
| Year 10 | $10.43B | $4.60B |
| Terminal Value | $177.01B | $78.01B |
What Are UPS's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$108.25
EPS (TTM)
$5.38
Forward P/E
13.4
Profit Margin
4.8%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
5.6B
EBITDA
11.2B
Book Value
$17.62
Total Debt
30.3B
What Do Analysts Say About UPS?
Low
$76.00
Average
$115.42
High
$135.00
Upside
+6.6%
UPS Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of UPS?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), UPS's estimated fair value is $95.01. The stock is currently trading at $108.25, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is UPS's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is UPS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, UPS is fair value. The current price of $108.25 is 12.2% above our estimated fair value of $95.01.
What do Wall Street analysts say about UPS?
26 analysts cover United Parcel Service Inc. with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $115.42, ranging from $76.00 to $135.00. This implies 6.6% upside from the current price.