What Is UPS Fair Value?
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 1, 2026, United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) has a composite fair value estimate of $86.10 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $104.22, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 17.4%.
Data as of August 1, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$86.10
vs. current price of $104.22(-17.4%)
How Is UPS Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what UPS is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
UPS Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$99.12
-4.9%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$94.06
-9.8%Fair Value
Inputs used
UPS Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$53.32
-48.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$71.38
-31.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $104.22 is 4.9% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.27B | $4.86B |
| Year 2 | $5.59B | $4.75B |
| Year 3 | $5.92B | $4.64B |
| Year 4 | $6.27B | $4.53B |
| Year 5 | $6.65B | $4.42B |
| Year 6 | $7.05B | $4.32B |
| Year 7 | $7.47B | $4.22B |
| Year 8 | $7.91B | $4.12B |
| Year 9 | $8.38B | $4.03B |
| Year 10 | $8.88B | $3.93B |
| Terminal Value | $151.96B | $67.26B |
What Are UPS's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$104.22
EPS (TTM)
$5.38
Forward P/E
13.0
Profit Margin
5.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
5B
EBITDA
11.1B
Book Value
$17.71
Total Debt
28.7B
What Do Analysts Say About UPS?
Low
$76.00
Average
$114.24
High
$135.00
Upside
+9.6%
UPS Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of UPS?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), UPS's estimated fair value is $86.10. The stock is currently trading at $104.22, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is UPS's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is UPS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, UPS is overvalued. The current price of $104.22 is 17.4% above our estimated fair value of $86.10.
What do Wall Street analysts say about UPS?
25 analysts cover United Parcel Service Inc. with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $114.24, ranging from $76.00 to $135.00. This implies 9.6% upside from the current price.