What Is UPS Fair Value?
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of September 15, 2026, United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) has a composite fair value estimate of $94.56 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $102.35, suggesting the stock is fair value by 7.6%.
Data as of September 15, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value4 of 4 models$94.56
vs. current price of $102.35(-7.6%)
How Is UPS Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what UPS is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
UPS Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$118.28
+15.6%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$96.22
-6.0%Fair Value
Inputs used
UPS Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$53.59
-47.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$72.10
-29.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $102.35 is 15.6% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.95B | $5.48B |
| Year 2 | $6.33B | $5.37B |
| Year 3 | $6.73B | $5.27B |
| Year 4 | $7.16B | $5.16B |
| Year 5 | $7.61B | $5.06B |
| Year 6 | $8.09B | $4.96B |
| Year 7 | $8.61B | $4.86B |
| Year 8 | $9.15B | $4.76B |
| Year 9 | $9.74B | $4.67B |
| Year 10 | $10.35B | $4.58B |
| Terminal Value | $176.71B | $78.11B |
What Are UPS's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$102.35
EPS (TTM)
$5.38
Forward P/E
12.7
Profit Margin
5.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
5.6B
EBITDA
12.1B
Book Value
$17.71
Total Debt
28.7B
What Do Analysts Say About UPS?
Low
$76.00
Average
$116.08
High
$135.00
Upside
+13.4%
UPS Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of UPS?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), UPS's estimated fair value is $94.56. The stock is currently trading at $102.35, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is UPS's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is UPS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, UPS is fair value. The current price of $102.35 is 7.6% above our estimated fair value of $94.56.
What do Wall Street analysts say about UPS?
26 analysts cover United Parcel Service Inc. with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $116.08, ranging from $76.00 to $135.00. This implies 13.4% upside from the current price.