What Is XOM Fair Value?
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of September 16, 2026, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has a composite fair value estimate of $161.80 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $163.32, suggesting the stock is fair value by 0.9%.
Data as of September 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value4 of 4 models$161.80
vs. current price of $163.32(-0.9%)
How Is XOM Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what XOM is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
XOM Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$191.29
+17.1%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$142.55
-12.7%Fair Value
Inputs used
XOM Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$129.12
-20.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$117.46
-28.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $163.32 is 17.1% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $22.71B | $21.56B |
| Year 2 | $23.85B | $21.48B |
| Year 3 | $25.04B | $21.40B |
| Year 4 | $26.30B | $21.33B |
| Year 5 | $27.61B | $21.25B |
| Year 6 | $28.99B | $21.18B |
| Year 7 | $30.44B | $21.10B |
| Year 8 | $31.96B | $21.03B |
| Year 9 | $33.56B | $20.95B |
| Year 10 | $35.24B | $20.88B |
| Terminal Value | $1.26T | $745.00B |
What Are XOM's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$163.32
EPS (TTM)
$7.77
Forward P/E
15.1
Profit Margin
9.1%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
20.7B
EBITDA
67.9B
Book Value
$63.08
Total Debt
42.4B
What Do Analysts Say About XOM?
Low
$142.00
Average
$170.91
High
$200.00
Upside
+4.6%
XOM Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of XOM?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), XOM's estimated fair value is $161.80. The stock is currently trading at $163.32, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is XOM's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is XOM overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, XOM is fair value. The current price of $163.32 is 0.9% above our estimated fair value of $161.80.
What do Wall Street analysts say about XOM?
22 analysts cover Exxon Mobil Corporation with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $170.91, ranging from $142.00 to $200.00. This implies 4.6% upside from the current price.