What Is ATO Fair Value?
Atmos Energy (ATO) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 29, 2026, Atmos Energy (ATO) has a composite fair value estimate of $138.19 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $166.65, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 17.1%.
Data as of August 29, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$138.19
vs. current price of $166.65(-17.1%)
How Is ATO Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ATO is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ATO Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$150.18
-9.9%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$149.41
-10.3%Fair Value
Inputs used
ATO Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$131.13
-21.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$84.64
-49.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $166.65 is 9.9% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $989.2M | $926.4M |
| Year 2 | $1.09B | $954.4M |
| Year 3 | $1.20B | $983.2M |
| Year 4 | $1.32B | $1.01B |
| Year 5 | $1.45B | $1.04B |
| Year 6 | $1.59B | $1.08B |
| Year 7 | $1.75B | $1.11B |
| Year 8 | $1.93B | $1.14B |
| Year 9 | $2.12B | $1.18B |
| Year 10 | $2.33B | $1.21B |
| Terminal Value | $55.92B | $29.03B |
What Are ATO's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$166.65
EPS (TTM)
$8.39
Forward P/E
18.5
Profit Margin
28.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
-2.2B
EBITDA
2.6B
Book Value
$90.29
Total Debt
10.3B
What Do Analysts Say About ATO?
Low
$170.00
Average
$188.18
High
$206.00
Upside
+12.9%
ATO Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ATO?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ATO's estimated fair value is $138.19. The stock is currently trading at $166.65, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ATO's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ATO overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ATO is overvalued. The current price of $166.65 is 17.1% above our estimated fair value of $138.19.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ATO?
11 analysts cover Atmos Energy with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $188.18, ranging from $170.00 to $206.00. This implies 12.9% upside from the current price.