What Is ATO Fair Value?
Atmos Energy (ATO) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Atmos Energy (ATO) has a composite fair value estimate of $138.24 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $174.98, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 21.0%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$138.24
vs. current price of $174.98(-21.0%)
How Is ATO Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what ATO is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
ATO Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$150.44
-14.0%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$150.59
-13.9%Fair Value
Inputs used
ATO Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$130.31
-25.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$84.50
-51.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $174.98 is 14.0% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $989.2M | $925.9M |
| Year 2 | $1.09B | $953.3M |
| Year 3 | $1.20B | $981.5M |
| Year 4 | $1.32B | $1.01B |
| Year 5 | $1.45B | $1.04B |
| Year 6 | $1.59B | $1.07B |
| Year 7 | $1.75B | $1.10B |
| Year 8 | $1.93B | $1.14B |
| Year 9 | $2.12B | $1.17B |
| Year 10 | $2.33B | $1.20B |
| Terminal Value | $55.12B | $28.45B |
What Are ATO's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$174.98
EPS (TTM)
$7.96
Forward P/E
19.4
Profit Margin
27.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
-2.2B
EBITDA
2.5B
Book Value
$89.32
Total Debt
9.6B
What Do Analysts Say About ATO?
Low
$170.00
Average
$188.33
High
$206.00
Upside
+7.6%
ATO Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of ATO?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), ATO's estimated fair value is $138.24. The stock is currently trading at $174.98, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is ATO's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is ATO overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, ATO is overvalued. The current price of $174.98 is 21.0% above our estimated fair value of $138.24.
What do Wall Street analysts say about ATO?
12 analysts cover Atmos Energy with a consensus rating of "Hold." The average price target is $188.33, ranging from $170.00 to $206.00. This implies 7.6% upside from the current price.