What Is MAR Fair Value?
Marriott International (MAR) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Marriott International (MAR) has a composite fair value estimate of $163.76 based on four valuation models: DCF (47% weight), Graham Number (0% weight), PEG (33% weight), and DDM (20% weight). The current market price is $369.05, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 55.6%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued3 of 4 models$163.76
vs. current price of $369.05(-55.6%)
How Is MAR Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what MAR is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
MAR Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
47% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$164.23
-55.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
20% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$91.21
-75.3%Overvalued
Inputs used
MAR Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
0% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
N/A
Requires positive EPS and book value. Marriott International currently has negative earnings, so the Graham formula cannot be applied.
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
33% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$166.06
-55.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $369.05 is 55.5% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.23B | $2.03B |
| Year 2 | $2.55B | $2.12B |
| Year 3 | $2.91B | $2.21B |
| Year 4 | $3.33B | $2.31B |
| Year 5 | $3.81B | $2.41B |
| Year 6 | $4.35B | $2.51B |
| Year 7 | $4.97B | $2.62B |
| Year 8 | $5.68B | $2.74B |
| Year 9 | $6.50B | $2.85B |
| Year 10 | $7.43B | $2.98B |
| Terminal Value | $107.59B | $43.11B |
What Are MAR's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$369.05
EPS (TTM)
$9.71
Forward P/E
28.2
Profit Margin
36.0%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
1.8B
EBITDA
4.7B
Book Value
-$15.46
Total Debt
17.4B
What Do Analysts Say About MAR?
Low
$272.00
Average
$381.96
High
$449.00
Upside
+3.5%
MAR Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of MAR?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), MAR's estimated fair value is $163.76. The stock is currently trading at $369.05, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is MAR's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is MAR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, MAR is overvalued. The current price of $369.05 is 55.6% above our estimated fair value of $163.76.
What do Wall Street analysts say about MAR?
24 analysts cover Marriott International with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $381.96, ranging from $272.00 to $449.00. This implies 3.5% upside from the current price.