What Is PKG Fair Value?
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 29, 2026, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has a composite fair value estimate of $227.60 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $240.39, suggesting the stock is fair value by 5.3%.
Data as of August 29, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Fair Value4 of 4 models$227.60
vs. current price of $240.39(-5.3%)
How Is PKG Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what PKG is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
PKG Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$228.91
-4.8%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$441.39
+83.6%Undervalued
Inputs used
PKG Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$111.52
-53.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$157.02
-34.7%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $240.39 is 4.8% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $662.9M | $613.3M |
| Year 2 | $762.1M | $652.3M |
| Year 3 | $876.0M | $693.7M |
| Year 4 | $1.01B | $737.8M |
| Year 5 | $1.16B | $784.7M |
| Year 6 | $1.33B | $834.5M |
| Year 7 | $1.53B | $887.6M |
| Year 8 | $1.76B | $943.9M |
| Year 9 | $2.02B | $1.00B |
| Year 10 | $2.32B | $1.07B |
| Terminal Value | $42.63B | $19.59B |
What Are PKG's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$240.39
EPS (TTM)
$7.60
Forward P/E
18.6
Profit Margin
7.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
433M
EBITDA
2B
Book Value
$52.64
Total Debt
4.4B
What Do Analysts Say About PKG?
Low
$167.00
Average
$260.50
High
$312.00
Upside
+8.4%
PKG Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of PKG?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), PKG's estimated fair value is $227.60. The stock is currently trading at $240.39, which makes it fair value by our analysis.
How is PKG's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is PKG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, PKG is fair value. The current price of $240.39 is 5.3% above our estimated fair value of $227.60.
What do Wall Street analysts say about PKG?
10 analysts cover Packaging Corporation of America with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $260.50, ranging from $167.00 to $312.00. This implies 8.4% upside from the current price.